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ande
May 9th, 2008, 06:52 PM
U.S. swimmer Phelps prepares for another shot at Spitz's record

http://www.gazette.com/sports/phelps_36134___article.html/time_record.html

mikeh
May 10th, 2008, 07:43 AM
Michael Phelps is the first male swimmer to be legitimately greater than Mark Spitz.

USMSarah
May 10th, 2008, 08:52 AM
Michael Phelps is the first male swimmer to be legitimately greater than Mark Spitz.

I agree. It will be fun to see what he does at this Olympics.

geochuck
May 10th, 2008, 09:14 AM
Is it possible some one new will be a spoiler?

scyfreestyler
May 10th, 2008, 01:19 PM
Is it possible some one new will be a spoiler?

Possible, but not probable.

Chris Stevenson
May 10th, 2008, 02:19 PM
Possible, but not probable.

I don't know about that, that's a lot of events he has to win, and the US is not as dominant in relays as it was in Spitz' day. As good as Phelps is, I think the odds are against him even matching Spitz' seven golds.

Comparisons between the two are inevitable, but it really is an apples and oranges thing. The swimming world is just so much different now than in the 70s.

scyfreestyler
May 10th, 2008, 02:33 PM
I don't know about that, that's a lot of events he has to win, and the US is not as dominant in relays as it was in Spitz' day. As good as Phelps is, I think the odds are against him even matching Spitz' seven golds.

Comparisons between the two are inevitable, but it really is an apples and oranges thing. The swimming world is just so much different now than in the 70s.

What I meant to say is that the likelihood of another swimmer surpassing Phelps for most golds at this Olympics does not seem probable. If anybody is going to beat the Spitz record this year, my money would be on Phelps.

ande
May 10th, 2008, 02:41 PM
swimmer vs swimmer
spitz vs phelps

spitz swam 100 & 200 fly & fr

phelps swims 100 & 200 fly, bk & fr, 200 & 400 IM and is no slouch in the 400 fr & the 200 breast

Mark was great in his day
Michael is amazing today

the olympics has also brought in semi finals so
there's one extra swim for each 100 & 200 event
which makes it even more grueling

Allen Stark
May 10th, 2008, 03:26 PM
Is there any rational reason to have semi-finals,except to make money.Throw out the semi-finals and there is a chance every WR could be broken at this Olympics.With the semi-finals it decreases the chances.

quicksilver
May 10th, 2008, 04:29 PM
Is it possible some one new will be a spoiler?

Ryan Lochte is a possibility in stealing his thunder in the 100 and 200 backs...maybe even the IM"s.

Sam Perry
May 10th, 2008, 08:06 PM
Ryan Lochte is a possibility in stealing his thunder in the 100 and 200 backs...maybe even the IM"s.

I don't think Phelps will swim the 100 back and maybe not the 200 back.

They are not divulging what he is swimming. Besides the obvious:
100 Fly
200 Fly
200 Free
200 IM
400 IM

What else do y'all think he will swim. I haven't looked at the order of events, so I don't know. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he swims the 100 Free, just to avoid the controversy from 2004 of being on the relay without swimming it at trials. He recovers so quickly from races, I think he could easily (relatively speaking) add it to his list. He is lifting so much more in 2008 vs. 2004, I think we will see him with some incredible sprint speed that we haven't ever seen.

P.S. The semi finals are a joke, but it definitely adds a spice to strategy. Look what happend to Lezak in 2004. I think he somewhat "cruised" the prelims since he "only" had to make top 16 and blew it because of that mentality.

That Guy
May 10th, 2008, 10:29 PM
Those 5 events and the 3 relays make 8 medals. The 100 back always follows the 200 free (just 1 women's event in between). The 200 back is similarly paired with the 200 IM, and also would create a session where Phelps would have to swim the 200 back final, 200 IM final, and then the 100 fly semi. The men's 400 free is amazingly still attached at the hip to the 400 IM so I don't think you'll see any men do both of those. And I'm not sure if Phelps is among our top 2 in those events (same problem with the 100 free). So I think the same program as 2007 Worlds is what we'll see.

That Guy
May 10th, 2008, 10:55 PM
Next up and possibly more fun: what will KATIE HOFF swim? My guess:

400 IM, 4x100 free relay; 400 free; 200 free, 200 IM; 4x200 free relay; 800 free.

That's seven, so the big question is, will Katie finish in our top 2 in the 100 free at Trials? If she does, she would then be on the 4x100 medley, for a total of NINE events... with no serious schedule crunches!

hofffam
May 12th, 2008, 10:47 AM
Those 5 events and the 3 relays make 8 medals. The 100 back always follows the 200 free (just 1 women's event in between). The 200 back is similarly paired with the 200 IM, and also would create a session where Phelps would have to swim the 200 back final, 200 IM final, and then the 100 fly semi. The men's 400 free is amazingly still attached at the hip to the 400 IM so I don't think you'll see any men do both of those. And I'm not sure if Phelps is among our top 2 in those events (same problem with the 100 free). So I think the same program as 2007 Worlds is what we'll see.

Not sure what you mean when you say Phelps might not be in our top 2 in the 400 free and 400IM. He is the WR holder for the 400 IM.

geochuck
May 12th, 2008, 11:17 AM
How can we predict who is going to swim on the USA team never mind how many medals anyone is going to get???.

He may not even be selected to go, stranger things have happened.

phdude
May 12th, 2008, 11:26 AM
yeah, it will be interesting to see how much lochte's butterfly kicks on breaststroke from US Nationals will help his 4IM LC time. or if he will keep them after all the hubbub that sprang up after people saw the video.

USMSarah
May 12th, 2008, 11:39 AM
Ryan Lochte is a possibility in stealing his thunder in the 100 and 200 backs...maybe even the IM"s.

Is Piersol still in it? I haven't been keeping track of the guys lately...

:confused:

USMSarah
May 12th, 2008, 11:42 AM
Next up and possibly more fun: what will KATIE HOFF swim? My guess:

400 IM, 4x100 free relay; 400 free; 200 free, 200 IM; 4x200 free relay; 800 free.

That's seven, so the big question is, will Katie finish in our top 2 in the 100 free at Trials? If she does, she would then be on the 4x100 medley, for a total of NINE events... with no serious schedule crunches!

Tons of fun! But, I don't know about the top 2 in the 100 free. You got Coughlin, Weir... maybe Torres?

;)

It will be a blast to watch trials.

That Guy
May 12th, 2008, 12:26 PM
Not sure what you mean when you say Phelps might not be in our top 2 in the 400 free and 400IM. He is the WR holder for the 400 IM.

I was referring to the 400 free and the backstrokes. Phelps is the king of the 400 IM, no doubt.

Dolphin 2
May 12th, 2008, 03:10 PM
Donít worry about Phelps eclipsing Mark Spitzís record.

All Phelps has to do is wear the next generation silicone coated, polymerically engineered, body compressing, drag reducing suit from Speedo, Nike, Arena, etc., and he will become the greatest swimmer of all time.

And everyone will be OOOOOing and AWWWWing over another Dumbed-Down "achievement" thanks to technologically assisted swimming. :shakeshead:

quicksilver
May 12th, 2008, 03:19 PM
Is Piersol still in it? I haven't been keeping track of the guys lately...

:confused:

He is.
But Lochte holds the 200 record now...and Phelps just barely missed the 100.
Piersol's records seemed untouchable until this past year.

hofffam
May 12th, 2008, 03:21 PM
Donít worry about Phelps eclipsing Mark Spitzís record.

All Phelps has to do is wear the next generation silicone coated, polymerically engineered, body compressing, drag reducing suit from Speedo, Nike, Arena, etc., and he will become the greatest swimmer of all time.

And everyone will be OOOOOing and AWWWWing over another Dumbed-Down "achievement" thanks to technologically assisted swimming. :shakeshead:

This comment would be relevent only if Phelps had these advantages and no one else did. However he will be wearing the same super-suit that everyone else will be wearing. So Phelps' accomplishments in Beijing, whatever they are, will stand on their own. Phelps will win or not based on his training and ability to perform on the big stage.

The swimsuit has nothing to do with his workouts, nor his incredible versatility. I was a huge Spitz fan, but Phelps is a world class swimmer in every stroke (including breaststroke).

Warren
May 12th, 2008, 03:57 PM
Phelps won't get lucky in the 100 fly again. I don't think he can win in backstroke either. And France or Australia will win the 4x100 free relay.

so that leaves
200 fly
200 im
400 im
200 free
4 x 100 meadly
4 x 200 free

Thats 6 golds

Dolphin 2
May 12th, 2008, 04:15 PM
This comment would be relevent only if Phelps had these advantages and no one else did. However he will be wearing the same super-suit that everyone else will be wearing. So Phelps' accomplishments in Beijing, whatever they are, will stand on their own. Phelps will win or not based on his training and ability to perform on the big stage.

The swimsuit has nothing to do with his workouts, nor his incredible versatility. I was a huge Spitz fan, but Phelps is a world class swimmer in every stroke (including breaststroke).

I (and many, many others) have posed this question before: If the suit does NOT provide any swimmer with an advantage over another (and everyone is in fact competing on a level playing field), what is really being achieved (except adding NASCAR appeal to swimming) by introducing all these mechanical aids in the first place?

On the other hand, if tech suits DO provide an advantage, then that's a No-No and another nail in the coffin for these suits.

In both of these cases, the logical solution is to just go back to Square 1 and have FINA dispense with tech suits altogether. Then go back to having everyone wearing simple briefs and the swimmer with the best body and atheletic mind will still win.

However, the main difference is that the world records (for a given distance and technique) themselves may not have been broken at the rate they have been prior to low drag suits being brought into the game.

Be the same reasoning, one thing that I have a problem with is the suit manufacturers boasting how a world's record was set with their suit. We are looking at who really is the best at swimming -not which company is the best at making faster swim suits.

Happy swimming

Dolphin 2 :)

hofffam
May 12th, 2008, 05:33 PM
I (and many, many others) have posed this question before: If the suit does NOT provide any swimmer with an advantage over another (and everyone is in fact competing on a level playing field), what is really being achieved (except adding NASCAR appeal to swimming) by introducing all these mechanical aids in the first place?

On the other hand, if tech suits DO provide an advantage, then that's a No-No and another nail in the coffin for these suits.

In both of these cases, the logical solution is to just go back to Square 1 and have FINA dispense with tech suits altogether. Then go back to having everyone wearing simple briefs and the swimmer with the best body and atheletic mind will still win.

However, the main difference is that the world records (for a given distance and technique) themselves may not have been broken at the rate they have been prior to low drag suits being brought into the game.

Be the same reasoning, one thing that I have a problem with is the suit manufacturers boasting how a world's record was set with their suit. We are looking at who really is the best at swimming -not which company is the best at making faster swim suits.

Happy swimming

Dolphin 2 :)


I think this thread is about Phelps - not the suit. My point is that his medal achievements at the Olympics, whatever they turn out to be, will not happen because of the LZR. If the LZR is as good as it seems - we should see world records everywhere from many different swimmers.

It sounds like your question is really: If the suit offers the same advantage to all swimmers why do it at all? A leap in speed may occur - which for a point in time will advance world records. But once everyone has the suit equilibrium will occur and the playing field is equal once again.

My single biggest beef with high performance suits is raising the cost of swimming for age group swimmers. There is no doubt parents will be pressured to buy these suits for their young swimmers. I would like to see USA-S simply disallow their use except for national meets.

ande
May 12th, 2008, 07:03 PM
Warren,

I hope Ian wins the 100 fly but Phelps has an amazing finish
Ian is going to have to go out faster than ever then hold him off on the 2nd 50, Michael could come home under 26, hasn't he been 26.2 or 3

let's not hand the 4 x 100 relay title to the frogs or the roos just yet
without seeing how fast the American's are at Trials
after all American ends with "I CAN"

I don't think any American swimmer has really peaked
like they will peak for olympic trials
I think we are going to see some amazing times at trials

Before the LZR I thought top 6 would take 48.6
I bet it takes a 48.2 or 3 to make top 6 now and for the sake of American swimming I hope it takes under 48 to make top 2

There's about 10 to 12 who are serious contenders
1) lezak,
2) phelps,
3) lochte,
4) walters,
5) grevers,
6) jones,
7) wildman,
8) weber gale
9) berens
10) walker
11) adrian
12 ) nick brunelli

http://usaswimming.org/usasweb/_Rainbow/Documents/addc96f5-86c7-4efb-9d21-7ebbb21e082b/m_100fr.pdf



Phelps won't get lucky in the 100 fly again. I don't think he can win in backstroke either. And France or Australia will win the 4x100 free relay.

so that leaves
200 fly
200 im
400 im
200 free
4 x 100 medley
4 x 200 free

Thats 6 golds

Sam Perry
May 12th, 2008, 07:31 PM
Warren,


There's about 10 to 12 who are serious contenders
1) lezak,
2) phelps,
3) lochte,
4) walters,
5) grevers,
6) jones,
7) wildman,
8) weber gale
9) berens
10) walker
11) adrian
12 ) nick brunelli

http://usaswimming.org/usasweb/_Rainbow/Documents/addc96f5-86c7-4efb-9d21-7ebbb21e082b/m_100fr.pdf

Another one who intrigues me is Righi. Did you see what he put down at NCAAs this Spring? He hasn't done much in LC, but he has improved so much in the last 12 months, it will be interesting if he can step up and surprise some people. He was in the shadows of Cielo, but had an awesome 50 and 100.

knelson
May 12th, 2008, 11:47 PM
Tons of fun! But, I don't know about the top 2 in the 100 free. You got Coughlin, Weir... maybe Torres?

And Jessica Hardy put herself in contention with a 54.54 swim last month. Also don't forget about Kara Lynn Joyce.

Dolphin 2
May 13th, 2008, 01:29 PM
I think this thread is about Phelps - not the suit. My point is that his medal achievements at the Olympics, whatever they turn out to be, will not happen because of the LZR. If the LZR is as good as it seems - we should see world records everywhere from many different swimmers.

It sounds like your question is really: If the suit offers the same advantage to all swimmers why do it at all? A leap in speed may occur - which for a point in time will advance world records. But once everyone has the suit equilibrium will occur and the playing field is equal once again.

My single biggest beef with high performance suits is raising the cost of swimming for age group swimmers. There is no doubt parents will be pressured to buy these suits for their young swimmers. I would like to see USA-S simply disallow their use except for national meets.

Hi Hoffam
As I’ve said previously, since anyone can put on a performance suit and gain (or not gain) an advantage, these suits are a superfluous idea and may as well be eliminated from the equation.

As for their cost, the price of just simple briefs are way too much (at least $15 here in S.F.) and it is a complete waste of money for parents to be buying even more expensive tech suits so their children can feel "more competitive".

It’s humorously ironic that people are complaining about the high cost of gas, yet they will run out and buy an expensive tech suit in the purely zealous pursuit of being the Big Dog in the pool. :blah:

Kinda reminds me of people who buy those “High Riding” SUVs (with the body jacked up 2 feet over the wheels) and then go parading around town showing off their prowess -and burning up gallons of expensive gas in the process!!! :roids:

Happy swimming

Dolphin 2

tjburk
May 13th, 2008, 02:05 PM
Hi Hoffam
As Iíve said previously, since anyone can put on a performance suit and gain (or not gain) an advantage, these suits are a superfluous idea and may as well be eliminated from the equation.

As for their cost, the price of just simple briefs are way too much (at least $15 here in S.F.) and it is a complete waste of money for parents to be buying even more expensive tech suits so their children can feel "more competitive".

Itís humorously ironic that people are complaining about the high cost of gas, yet they will run out and buy an expensive tech suit in the purely zealous pursuit of being the Big Dog in the pool. :blah:

Kinda reminds me of people who buy those ďHigh RidingĒ SUVs (with the body jacked up 2 feet over the wheels) and then go parading around town showing off their prowess -and burning up gallons of expensive gas in the process!!! :roids:

Happy swimming

Dolphin 2

Sounds to me like someone that is against any major thing to improve performance in or out of the water.....I personally would love to see all swimmers wearing the exact same suit.....then there could be no argument as to who is fastest in any event. But at the same time, the improvements in sporting equipment is an on-going battle in any and every sport....it's part of the game.....if I can get just the slightest edge over my opponent....I'll take it as long as it is legal and approved for competition.....IMHO of course!

hofffam
May 13th, 2008, 02:11 PM
Donít worry about Phelps eclipsing Mark Spitzís record.

All Phelps has to do is wear the next generation silicone coated, polymerically engineered, body compressing, drag reducing suit from Speedo, Nike, Arena, etc., and he will become the greatest swimmer of all time.

And everyone will be OOOOOing and AWWWWing over another Dumbed-Down "achievement" thanks to technologically assisted swimming. :shakeshead:

Dolphin 2 - I agree with much of what you say about the suits. But the quote above is from you. Your statement essentially discredits what Phelps may do in Beijing because he is wearing a LZR. If he wins 6, 7, or 8 gold medals, is his performance dumbed down?

Dolphin 2
May 13th, 2008, 03:13 PM
Dolphin 2 - I agree with much of what you say about the suits. But the quote above is from you. Your statement essentially discredits what Phelps may do in Beijing because he is wearing a LZR. If he wins 6, 7, or 8 gold medals, is his performance dumbed down?

There are two distinct statistics when it comes to the issue of speed.

[1] The speed of a given swimmer relative to the speed of another swimmer under the same conditions. Since this is a function of individual skill rather than mechanized aids, the suit is immaterial so why are suit makers trying to claim part of the glory about who won a race when they were wearing their brand?

[2] The World's Record speed which is a quantity based on pure magnitude itself and not relative speed. If suits (or other variables) are responsible for increased speed, then Phelp's world's records would indeed be achieved through artifical means and the speed would have to be "de-rated" to take any advantage into account. Accordingly, it would be interesting to see what the world's records would actually be if "old fashoined" briefs were the standard instead of tech suits.

As I've said til I'm getting blue in the face, swimming is about the swimmers themselves -not the technology of their swim suits- and if we could just go back to simple briefs -which play a very minimal role in performance- all the controversy over what is -or isn't- an acheivement would not exist.

Dolphin 2

Daaaave
May 14th, 2008, 11:55 AM
We should probably ban caps as well. They don't cover any private parts and don't provide any critical safety feature. Swimmers wear them specifically to go faster. I hereby renounce all records broken wearing caps. If you've ever worn a cap in competition, you are a technological doper. Congratulations, cheaters.

Dolphin 2
May 14th, 2008, 01:01 PM
We should probably ban caps as well. They don't cover any private parts and don't provide any critical safety feature. Swimmers wear them specifically to go faster. I hereby renounce all records broken wearing caps. If you've ever worn a cap in competition, you are a technological doper. Congratulations, cheaters.

Hi Daaaave:
You're probably right.

They didn't have caps back in my high school swim team days (the late 1960s and early 70s). I am seriously wondering exactly what the results would be if contemporary swimming was performed with the "absolute minimum". :weightlifter:

Dolphin 2

USMSarah
May 14th, 2008, 04:29 PM
And Jessica Hardy put herself in contention with a 54.54 swim last month. Also don't forget about Kara Lynn Joyce.

I'm on the fence with Hardy (in the freestyle)... but she did have one :censor: of a meet at SC Worlds! I think KJo will do better in the 50.

Justin Ritter
May 14th, 2008, 04:42 PM
I have a pretty strong feeling that if Phelps wore old-school briefs and no cap he'd still be getting gold medals and world records. I don't care how fancy the suits are, I can't imagine that they would account for the seconds that he's ahead of the competition (and old records) in some of his events.

There's no doubt that suits like the LZR make it a bit easier to break records but I bet if Speedo had never invented it you would still see a lot of records falling this year.

KeithM
May 14th, 2008, 08:56 PM
And France or Australia will win the 4x100 free relay.
I doubt you'd have said that before the French and Australian trials so why rule out the US as contenders for Gold before the US trials? It's a bit premature.

I do agree that it will be tough for Phelps to get the 7th and 8th but it's too early to conclude it's beyond his reach.

Flurpo
May 20th, 2008, 03:25 AM
Phelps won't get lucky in the 100 fly again. I don't think he can win in backstroke either. And France or Australia will win the 4x100 free relay.

so that leaves
200 fly
200 im
400 im
200 free
4 x 100 meadly
4 x 200 free

Thats 6 golds

Yep, gotta agree with this...Phelps went 49.1 this past weekend in the suit. I'm sure he will get down in the low 48s for the trails but I don't see the Americans getting into the low 47s like the frogs and the Aussies. Phelps has had a rough year. He will have big competition in the 200Fr. I think we will see more than one swim at sub 43 in the games.

KeithM
May 20th, 2008, 05:30 AM
I don't see the Americans getting into the low 47s like the frogs and the Aussies. Which Aussie and French swimmers have gone low 47?



Phelps has had a rough year.
Really?



He will have big competition in the 200Fr. Perhaps. Which swimmers you have in mind?



I think we will see more than one swim at sub 43 in the games.
I hope 43 was a typo!

LindsayNB
May 20th, 2008, 01:57 PM
Rank Time IPS Athlete YoB Nat Meet
1 47.50 1020 BERNARD, Alain 1983 FRA EUR08MAR
2 47.52 1019 SULLIVAN, Eamon 1985 AUS AUSLCMAR
3 48.02 1004 GILOT, Fabien 1984 FRA FRALCAPR
4 48.34 995 CIELO, Cesar A. 1987 BRA OSUAPR
5 48.36 994 TARGETT, Matthew 1986 AUS AUSLCMAR
6 48.38 994 LEVEAUX, Amaury 1985 FRA FRALCAPR
7 48.40 993 NYSTRAND, Stefan 1981 SWE EUR08MAR
8 48.41 993 SCHOEMAN, Roland 1980 RSA RSALCAPR
48.41 993 PHELPS, Michael 1985 USA OSUAPR
9 48.45 992 LAUTERSTEIN, Andrew 1987 AUS AUSLCMAR
10 48.50 990 WEBER-GALE, Garrett 1985 USA USAAAMAR
11 48.52 990 BOUSQUET, Frederick 1981 FRA FRALCAPR
12 48.53 989 MAGNINI, Filippo 1982 ITA EUR08MAR
48.53 989 GREVERS, Matthew 1985 USA USAAAMAR
13 48.55 989 DEIBLER, Steffen 1987 GER GERLCAPR
14 48.68 985 CALLUS, Ashley 1979 AUS AUSLCMAR
15 48.75 983 LEZAK, Jason 1975 USA TYRMVAPR
16 48.81 981 DRAGANJA, Duje 1983 CRO EUR08MAR
17 48.82 981 FERNS, Lyndon 1984 RSA RSALCAPR
18 48.85 980 LAGUNOV, Evgeni 1985 RUS EUR08MAR
19 48.86 980 GRECHIN, Andrey 1987 RUS EUR08MAR
20 48.91 978 HAYDEN, Brent 1983 CAN CANLCAPR
http://swimnews.com/Ranking.html

Glider
May 20th, 2008, 02:24 PM
Very interesting,

Take the top four of France, Australia , and the US, and here's what you've got:

FR..........3:12.42
AUS........3:13.01
USA........3:14.19

Not sure where FR and AUS are in their olympic preparations, but the USA hasn't had their trials yet, so it's not hard to see making up the difference.


Rank Time IPS Athlete YoB Nat Meet
1 47.50 1020 BERNARD, Alain 1983 FRA EUR08MAR
2 47.52 1019 SULLIVAN, Eamon 1985 AUS AUSLCMAR
3 48.02 1004 GILOT, Fabien 1984 FRA FRALCAPR
4 48.34 995 CIELO, Cesar A. 1987 BRA OSUAPR
5 48.36 994 TARGETT, Matthew 1986 AUS AUSLCMAR
6 48.38 994 LEVEAUX, Amaury 1985 FRA FRALCAPR
7 48.40 993 NYSTRAND, Stefan 1981 SWE EUR08MAR
8 48.41 993 SCHOEMAN, Roland 1980 RSA RSALCAPR
48.41 993 PHELPS, Michael 1985 USA OSUAPR
9 48.45 992 LAUTERSTEIN, Andrew 1987 AUS AUSLCMAR
10 48.50 990 WEBER-GALE, Garrett 1985 USA USAAAMAR
11 48.52 990 BOUSQUET, Frederick 1981 FRA FRALCAPR
12 48.53 989 MAGNINI, Filippo 1982 ITA EUR08MAR
48.53 989 GREVERS, Matthew 1985 USA USAAAMAR
13 48.55 989 DEIBLER, Steffen 1987 GER GERLCAPR
14 48.68 985 CALLUS, Ashley 1979 AUS AUSLCMAR
15 48.75 983 LEZAK, Jason 1975 USA TYRMVAPR
16 48.81 981 DRAGANJA, Duje 1983 CRO EUR08MAR
17 48.82 981 FERNS, Lyndon 1984 RSA RSALCAPR
18 48.85 980 LAGUNOV, Evgeni 1985 RUS EUR08MAR
19 48.86 980 GRECHIN, Andrey 1987 RUS EUR08MAR
20 48.91 978 HAYDEN, Brent 1983 CAN CANLCAPR
http://swimnews.com/Ranking.html

knelson
May 20th, 2008, 02:51 PM
Not sure where FR and AUS are in their olympic preparations, but the USA hasn't had their trials yet, so it's not hard to see making up the difference.

I believe both the Frogs and Aussies have already had their trials.

I'd say the Frogs are the favorites right now, but all three teams have a shot. I wouldn't totally count out the RSA team, either.

Warren
May 20th, 2008, 03:46 PM
I doubt you'd have said that before the French and Australian trials so why rule out the US as contenders for Gold before the US trials? It's a bit premature.

I do agree that it will be tough for Phelps to get the 7th and 8th but it's too early to conclude it's beyond his reach.


Yeah but the thing was frace and austrialia both had rising superstars comming into trail. People were saying I can't wait to see what bernard or sullivan do in trails. For the US its more along the lines of I can't wait to see someone do well. US will probably improve but we won't win. France looks to strong to be taken down we dont even need to wait for us trails to say it. Bernard- 47.50 no american is going to get that. Gilot 48.02- you know the top 2 americans times wont add up to bernard and gilot. Leveaux- 48.38 was extremely disapointed with this time. 21.38 in the 50 and 1:46.x in the 200, the 100 time doesn't match up, he is going to get faster. Bousquet- very soild freestyler.

Its going to be tough for the US to match up to this.

KeithM
May 20th, 2008, 04:30 PM
No American will get down to 47.50? But will they even have to?

Here's the way I look at it. Phelps clocked a 48.41 personal best at the Ohio Grand Prix. His times in other events there were well off his bests. That bodes well for his 100 this summer. As we all know he's an incredible back half swimmer. It is likely that both Australia and France will lead off with Sullivan and Bernard. Otherwise they risk getting too far behind before the anchor. Sullivan led off for the Australians at Worlds. So it is likely that Phelps will be swimming against them. I don't think those swimmers will be able to hold onto a massive margin against a closer like Phelps. I certainly see Phelps as a sub 48 capable swimmer. All Michael needs to do is keep the U.S. in the race so that the remaining three swimmers can chip away. Which swimmers will those be? Let's look at the top 3 candidates. We have Lezak who went his best in season time ever at the Meet of Champions (48.75), Grevers, and Weber Gale both on 48.5 already this year. Also look our for SC Worlds Champ Nathan Adrian. If the U.S. can get three of these guys between 48.0 and 48.5 at trials they're very much in the game.

valhallan
May 20th, 2008, 08:55 PM
Yeah but the thing was frace and austrialia both had rising superstars comming into trail. People were saying I can't wait to see what bernard or sullivan do in trails. For the US its more along the lines of I can't wait to see someone do well. US will probably improve but we won't win. France looks to strong to be taken down we dont even need to wait for us trails to say it. Bernard- 47.50 no american is going to get that. Gilot 48.02- you know the top 2 americans times wont add up to bernard and gilot. Leveaux- 48.38 was extremely disapointed with this time. 21.38 in the 50 and 1:46.x in the 200, the 100 time doesn't match up, he is going to get faster. Bousquet- very soild freestyler.

Its going to be tough for the US to match up to this.

Keep in mind that no one predicted that the aforementioned countries would have had so many record breaking swims.
Our trials have yet to happen...and every team member is outfitted in the same LZR racers that helped these guys rock the world.

Hloy sh*t is going to be a familiar expression on the pool deck this June 29th.

lefty
May 20th, 2008, 09:15 PM
Is "Frogs" an appropriate term?

Anyhow, the French could have one suprise: Bousquet has the fastest split in history, a 47.0. If he pops that off again lookout. THe winning relay won't have a leg over 47.8. WOW!

knelson
May 21st, 2008, 01:11 AM
Is "Frogs" an appropriate term?

You're right, I should have said les grenouilles. :joker:

Sam Perry
May 21st, 2008, 01:40 AM
Is "Frogs" an appropriate term?



Yes.