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View Full Version : Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing



carlos_fernandez
May 18th, 2008, 01:53 PM
It's supposed to be a secret, but what will the boy swim this summer?

Definite, TRIALS

200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
200 free (especially for 800 free relay)


Probable, TRIALS

100 fly (especially for 400 medley relay)
100 free


Maybe, TRIALS

200 back
400 free??? (I have NO idea; it doesn't seem like he's training for it)


Definite, BEIJING

200 fly
200 IM
400 IM


But what would his other 2 individual events be?


EDIT: mod edited for me!

scyfreestyler
May 18th, 2008, 02:10 PM
I think the 200 back is very likely. Bob Bowman, in an interview with Flocast, when asked about Phelps and the 200 back said "Well, you never know!".

cowsvils
May 18th, 2008, 02:31 PM
He's a lock on both of those 100s also, although he may only swim the 1 free to get onto the relay and swim a prelims heat of that for the medal.

If I were guessing at his events at the olympics it would be, without looking at the schedule.
4x200 free relay, 4x100 free relay, 4x100 medley, 200 fly, 100 fly, 200 back, 200 free, 200 IM, 400 IM. That would make 9 events, even if he just cruises some opening heats of the relays, thats a lot.

Nathan
May 18th, 2008, 03:05 PM
I think we'll see this in Beijing:

100 fly
200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
200 Free
400 free relay
800 free relay
400 medley relay

Golds: 8

Just my guess.

FlyQueen
May 18th, 2008, 03:14 PM
I'd be surprised if he swims the 2back at trials ... not because he cannot hack it but because of the schedule and that event takes a bigger toll on the legs especially than some others. I remember in an interview a few years ago Michael said the 2back was the hardest 200 LCM when you were in shape (2fly being the hardest out of shape).

I'd say
100 fly
200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
200 Free

and all three relays are givens

I'd also guess that he swims the 100 free and 100 back. That's also not looking at the schedule but the guy recovers from a race in about 5 minutes so I don't think they worry too much about the back to backs.

talne621
May 18th, 2008, 03:44 PM
I think he will do:
200 fly
200 free
200 IM
4x200 free relay
100 free for relay spots
4x100 free relay
4x100 medley relay (he can do any leg other than breast)
400 IM
100 fly
100 back
I don't think that he will try the 200 back but it is possible.

quicksilver
May 18th, 2008, 05:59 PM
100free 100fly 100back 200IM
200free 200fly ?........? 400IM

400 medley relay
800 free relay

carlos_fernandez
May 18th, 2008, 06:52 PM
Nothing indicates that he'll do the 100 back, at least that I can think of.

The other question(s) would be:

Who's his competition for taking the gold in each event?

100 fly: Crocker
200 fly: nobody
200 IM: Lochte, ??
400 IM: ??
200 free: don't know :(
200 back: Piersol and/or Lochte (at trials)

FlyQueen
May 18th, 2008, 06:59 PM
Nothing other than being .03 off of Peirsol's WR last year ...

hofffam
May 18th, 2008, 07:03 PM
No way he swims 100 back. He is the WR holder in 200 free he will swim it.

Definite for Trials:

200fly
200im
400im
200free
100 fly (prove he can beat Crocker)
100 free (he'll be no worse than #3, could be #1)
200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1)

He'll choose the best 6. He'll be on three relays.

KeithM
May 18th, 2008, 07:26 PM
I think we'll see this in Beijing:

100 fly
200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
200 Free
400 free relay
800 free relay
400 medley relay

Golds: 8

Just my guess.

I agree. Sticking with the program from last year's World Championships seems smartest. As Fly Queen mentioned I remember Phelps commenting that the 200 back hurts more than any other event for him because it kills his legs. I don't know if he'll win eight golds but it will be fun watching him try.

quicksilver
May 18th, 2008, 07:47 PM
Nothing other than being .03 off of Peirsol's WR last year ...




He took it out in a moderate pace, saw he was a little behind at the wall...and only started moving after the turn.
If he went faster on the way he'd own that record too.

Nathan
May 18th, 2008, 08:28 PM
200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1)

Lochte, Peirsol... both guys could place above him in the 200 back.

FlyQueen
May 18th, 2008, 08:56 PM
He took it out in a moderate pace, saw he was a little behind at the wall...and only started moving after the turn.
If he went faster on the way he'd own that record too.

I was talking about his 100 back at last summer nats last year. He was definitely going for the record and I believe went a 53.01 ... that's off the top of my head. I think he swims the 100 back AND the 200 free.

FlyQueen
May 18th, 2008, 08:58 PM
No way he swims 100 back. He is the WR holder in 200 free he will swim it.

Definite for Trials:

200fly
200im
400im
200free
100 fly (prove he can beat Crocker)
100 free (he'll be no worse than #3, could be #1)
200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1)

He'll choose the best 6. He'll be on three relays.



I feel like so many people are counting Peirsol out in backstroke. He's going to be so fired up at trials and in Beijing I'd bet good money he'll repeat his double gold ... I think his ONE loss last year in the 2 back (we aren't counting Duel) pissed him off enough that he isn't going to let it happen again. He knows who is out there and he'll step up when he needs to. Keep in mind that he is probably only swimming two events at trials as compared to Lochte and Phelps' 4-7?

cowsvils
May 18th, 2008, 09:28 PM
I think if people are counting anyone out it is Lochte. Everyone has seen Peirsol beat out Phelps in the 200 at the touch multiple times, so it would be silly to count him out, but unless I'm mistaken Lochte has never raced Phelps in the 200 back. The most sick thing about the whole situation is I don't think anyone would be surprised of someone breaking the old world record doesn't even make the team if Phelps swims.

Also, there is no need for Phelps to prove he can beat Crocker, the only thing he needs to do is break Crocker's WR, as Phelps has won head to head many times, most recently at Melbourne.

quicksilver
May 19th, 2008, 09:47 AM
I was talking about his 100 back at last summer nats last year. He was definitely going for the record and I believe went a 53.01 ... that's off the top of my head. I think he swims the 100 back AND the 200 free.

That's what I meant too. Summer Nats. The guy in the next lane went out in WR pace.
When Phelps saw he was losing ground at the flags... he pounded out his trademark 15 meters of dolphin kick, and split the fastest back half 50 ever....just missing the record. http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=3446627


Between Crocker, Piersol, and a mixed bag of sprint freestylers...
The only guy safe from having his medal contended with is Brendan Hansen.

Lochte may just be the dark horse in all of this.
His sprinting ability has really been showcased these past two years.
And the underwater kicking is every bit as impressive as Phelps. The IM races should be neck and neck.

tjburk
May 19th, 2008, 09:52 AM
Between Crocker, Piersol, and a mixed bag of sprint freestylers...
The only guy safe from having his medal contended with is Brendan Hansen.

Lochte may just be the dark horse in all of this.
His sprinting ability has really been showcased these past two years.
And the underwater kicking is every bit as impressive as Phelps. The IM races should be neck and neck.

Just wondering....is Kitajima not swimming in Beijing? If he is, how far off is he from Hansen's current times?

tjburk
May 19th, 2008, 09:58 AM
Top 5 100 Breast times according to FINA.....

1 HANSEN Brendan USA 1981 59.61 Qual OG 08 / 2008 All-American LC Championships Austin, USA 06-03-2008
2 KITAJIMA Kosuke JPN 1982 59.66 Qual OG 08 / Japan Swim 2008 Tokyo, JPN 15-04-2008
3 DALE OEN Alexander NOR 1985 59.76 Qual OG 08 / 29th LEN European Swimming Championships Eindhoven, NED 18-03-2008
4 DUBOSCQ Hugues FRA 1981 59.78 Qual OG 08 / 29th LEN European Swimming Championships Eindhoven, NED 18-03-2008
5 COOK Christopher GBR 1979 59.88 Qual OG 08 / British Swimming Championships Sheffield, GBR 31-03-2008

In the 200, with the time he swam this weekend, Brendan is 10th with a 2:10.62. Right behind Eric Shanteau.

quicksilver
May 19th, 2008, 10:12 AM
Should have said...

"The only guy safe from having his medal contended with (by Phelps) is Brendan Hansen."

Yeah, BH and Kickajima will always have that rivalry.

ande
May 19th, 2008, 12:31 PM
he won't swim the 50 fr, 1,500 fr, 100 br, & 200 br

he could swim the 400 free but probably not

Michael will to swim the
100 & 200 fly
200 & 400 IM
200 free

he has an excellent 100 & 200 back
so probably the 200 back & 100 backstroke
he comes home amazingly fast in the both the 100 & 200 bk

probably the 100 free so he will have a time from Olympic Trials to get on the 4 x 100 relay and not have the controversy he faced in 2004 where he didn't swim the 100 free but swam it on a relay at the Olympics much to Gary Hall's dismay and protest. I would have him swim it once, post a blazing time then scratch the semi's and finals, but he'll probably swim all the way through

He's amazing at back to back events in the same session



It's supposed to be a secret, but what will the boy swim this summer?

Definite, TRIALS

200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
200 free (especially for 800 free relay)


Probable, TRIALS

100 fly (especially for 400 medley relay)
100 free


Maybe, TRIALS

200 back
400 free??? (I have NO idea; it doesn't seem like he's training for it)


Definite, BEIJING

200 fly
200 IM
400 IM


But what would his other 2 individual events be?


EDIT: mod edited for me!

lefty
May 19th, 2008, 05:35 PM
On a comparitive basis, Phleps 100 back is closer to Peirsol than his 100 fly is to Crocker. If both are at 100% Phelps would probably lose to Crocker in 100 fly. Phelps would beat Piersol under the same proposition because the 53.01 kind of came out of nowhere at just a mid-major meet.

Entries are due really soon, he enters:
100 free
100 fly
100 back
200IM
200Fly
200 Free
200 Back
400IM

He never gets in the water for the 200 back though, only swims prelims in the 100 free (like Ande suggested). If he smashes the WR in the 100 back at trials, he might drop the 400 IM at the Olympics. Now is not a time to be experimenting, he swam the 100 back this weekend because he is strongly considering it.

scyfreestyler
May 19th, 2008, 05:39 PM
Why drop the 400 IM? That's a sure fire gold for him.

KeithM
May 19th, 2008, 06:05 PM
Lefty, he swam the 200 back. Does that mean he's considering it?

Realistically, the 100 fly is less competitive at the top end than the 100 back. It's much deeper than just Peirsol. You have Lochte, Bal, and others at US Trials. Then you have swimmers like Tancock, Meeuw, etc internationally who are much more in the thick of things than the other rivals besides Crocker in the 100 fly. Tancock ripped the 50m back record by an astonishing .4 seconds. But he declined to swim the 100 back at the same meet (UK Trials) since he already qualified for the team from his podium finish at Worlds last year. To give you an idea ... Tancock finished third in the 50 backstroke at World Championships in 25.2. A full 8/10ths slower than what he swam this year. He won the bronze in the 100 back there in 53.6. If you extrapolate the 50 WR to his 100 he's well below 53sec. His best time last year in the 100 is 53.46. His 50 back time is ominous for what he might do in the 100. He has a 1:57 200IM so he's got the endurance. Then you have Meeuw who went 53.10 at the German trials to break the European Record. Granted, he has yet to clear the hurdle of performing at the big international events. Yet, it's clear that the 100 fly doesn't have this depth.

So I believe the 100 fly is looking better for two reasons:
1. The 100 back is much less of a two man show
2. The 100 fly fits into his schedule better. The 100 back and the 200 free in the same session seems unpalatable. He shouldn't be taking PVK and Park for granted. If he decides to crowd that day with two events he will hurt his chances at winning both.

His best option is to swim the same program he did at Worlds and perhaps the 100 free prelim heats at trials. He should swim the 400IM as it's on the first day of morning finals and it doesn't conflict with other events.

cowsvils
May 19th, 2008, 10:33 PM
order of events is here: http://www.h2omaha.com/files/swimming-trials-events.pdf

Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me:
1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with.
2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem
3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims.
4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back.

Flurpo
May 20th, 2008, 02:42 AM
OK,,,now I'm changing my mind. Phelps has had a rough year. I don't think he will be able to repeat his 200FR time from last year. I don't think the 400Fr is a possibility either. The choice of events this past weekend were a bit of a surprise. I sense a little bit of panic on Bowmans part. I'm sure he will swim and win the 400IM, although the Hungarian will give him all he can handle. I don't think the Americans will take gold in the 400FR relay in China and I think Phelps knows it. He is going to have to swim 6 individual events to get the magic record. That means taking down both Piersol and Crocker in the 100. Oops, did I just put that in writing. I expect a pretty lack luster freestype performance from him at the trials. He is going to need a win in the 100 fly and 100 back to make it happen! Did you see that split on the 100 back this past weekend- wow...:duel:

KeithM
May 20th, 2008, 05:19 AM
I would wait until trials to make declarations about the chances or non-chances of the 4x100 relay. I think psychologically people are comparing 2008 Australia/France with the the 2007 U.S. Team. If those nations's trials changed the complexion of the event then why not Omaha?

Lezak swam the best in-season time of his career at the Meet of Champions a few weeks ago (48.75). Grevers and Weber-Gale have already been 48.5 recently. Phelps went a PB in Ohio unrested (48.41) ... a meet where he was well off his best times in other events. I think there is potential for those four. Beyond these four swimmers there is teenager Nathan Adrian. The SC World Champion seems to improve at every big meet. I'm certain he'll be under 49/sec the only question is how far.

Remember at the French trials only one swimmer broke 48. The Australian top four swimmers actually just nip the French team if you add up their trials times. But again only one swimmer under 48 at the Aussie trials. If the US can get three or four swimmers to tickle around the 48 mark in trials then they're in good shape.

FlyQueen
May 20th, 2008, 08:31 AM
OK,,,now I'm changing my mind. Phelps has had a rough year. I don't think he will be able to repeat his 200FR time from last year. I don't think the 400Fr is a possibility either. The choice of events this past weekend were a bit of a surprise. I sense a little bit of panic on Bowmans part. I'm sure he will swim and win the 400IM, although the Hungarian will give him all he can handle. I don't think the Americans will take gold in the 400FR relay in China and I think Phelps knows it. He is going to have to swim 6 individual events to get the magic record. That means taking down both Piersol and Crocker in the 100. Oops, did I just put that in writing. I expect a pretty lack luster freestype performance from him at the trials. He is going to need a win in the 100 fly and 100 back to make it happen! Did you see that split on the 100 back this past weekend- wow...:duel:

I'm hoping that was dripping with sarcasim ... seriously a bad year? On what planet?

lefty
May 20th, 2008, 03:47 PM
order of events is here: http://www.h2omaha.com/files/swimming-trials-events.pdf

Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me:
1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with.
2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem
3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims.
4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back.

I shu=ould have looked up the schedule, because you are right on about point 2. The 200 fly (not IM) semi isn't a big deal for Phelps, he can go a 1:56-57 easily (and it is after the hard races), but having two finals in a row will be tough! Lochte was in the same predicament in 2004 and flat out didn't bother with the 100 back. Seems like the smart thing to do.

Regarding the 100 back being deeper than the 100 fly. I think more people will go under 51 (fly) than 53 (back). We'll see...

ande
May 27th, 2008, 10:58 AM
the big issue Phelps and Bowman are considering is the
order of events at Trials and the Olympics
look at how they fall and which FINAL events will he have to swim back to back
He's OK with semifinals, he can hold back some and swim for time or place.


he will swim the Bolded events
100 fl, 200 fr, fl, & IM and the 400 IM

he may swim the 100 back because
it falls favorably in the meet order

he will probably swim the 100 Free
though he could just let his time stand
I have a feeling it will take 48.2 - 48.4 to make top 6

BUT if he swims the 200 BK
he will have a challenging session in
Thursday's Finals and very difficult session on the
Friday July 4th Finals because the
200 bk final is before the
200 IM Final, then the
100 fly semi final follows both

Lochte will swim the 200 BK & 200 IM
I bet Phelps lets lochte and piersol fight out the 200 bk


US Olympic Trials order of events (I believe the Olympic order of events is the same)

Sunday June 29 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
400 IM – men
100 Fly – women
400 Free – men
400 IM – women
100 Breast – men


Sunday June 29 – Finals - 6:45 p.m.
400 IM – men - FINAL
100 Fly – women - semifinal
400 Free –men – FINAL
400 IM – women – FINAL
100 Breast – men – semifinal


Monday June 30 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
100 Back – women
200 Free – men
100 Breast – women
100 Back – men
400 Free – women


Monday June 30 – Finals - 6:45 p.m.
100 Back – women - semifinal
200 Free – men – semifinal
100 Fly – women - FINAL
100 Breast – men - FINAL
100 Breast – women - semifinal
100 Back – men - semifinal
400 Free – women – FINAL


Tuesday July 1 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
200 Free – women
200 Fly – men
200 IM – women


Tuesday July 1 – Finals - 6:45 p.m.
200 Free – women – semifinal
200 Free – men - FINAL
100 Back – women - FINAL
100 Back – men - FINAL
100 Breast – women - FINAL
200 Fly – men - semifinal
200 IM – women – semifinal


Wednesday July 2 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
100 Free – men
200 Fly – women
200 Breast – men


Wednesday July 2 - Finals - 6:45 p.m.
100 Free – men - semifinal
200 Free – women – FINAL
200 Fly – men - FINAL
200 Fly – women - semifinal
200 Breast – men - semifinal
200 IM – women – FINAL


Thursday July 3 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
100 Free – women
200 Back – men
200 Breast – women
200 IM – men


Thursday July 3 – Finals - 6:45 p.m.
200 Breast – men - FINAL
100 Free – women – semifinal
200 Back – men - semifinal
200 Fly – women - FINAL
100 Free – men - FINAL
200 Breast – women - semifinal
200 IM – men – semifinal


Friday July 4 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
50 Free – men
800 Free – women
100 Fly – men
200 Back – women


Friday July 4 - Finals - 6:45 p.m.
50 Free – men - semifinal
200 Breast – women - FINAL
200 Back – men – FINAL
200 Back – women - semifinal
200 IM – men - FINAL
100 Free – women - FINAL
100 Fly – men – semifinal


Saturday July 5 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m.
50 Free – women
1500 Free – men


Saturday July 5 - Finals - 6:45 p.m.
200 Back – women - FINAL
100 Fly – men - FINAL
800 Free – women - FINAL
50 Free – men - FINAL
50 Free – women – semifinal


July 6 - Sunday No Preliminaries


July 6 - Sunday Finals - 6:45 p.m.
50 Free – women - FINAL
1500 Free – men - FINAL

ande
May 28th, 2008, 10:59 AM
we really need to look at the
Olympic event Schedule and include the reality of the Games for Phelps

Each day he will warm up, swim individual events, swim down, go through drug testing, media interviews before & after each session (not just ours but a line of interviewers) plus after each swim, do all the award ceremonies, then swim relays. It's a grueling schedule

he probably won't have to swim all the relays, they probably won't swim him in the prelims for the 4 x 200, I'm curious to see how the medley will play out. I also wonder if he'll do the 100 bk since it would provide him with another chance to be on the relay in finals


2008 Beijing Summer Olympics Swimming
Order of Events

Prelims At Night, Finals In The Morning


Sat 9 August 2008
18:30 Evening Session
Men's 400m Individual Medley - Heats
Women's 100m Butterfly - Heats
Men's 400m Freestyle - Heats
Women's 400m Individual Medley - Heats
Men's 100m Breaststroke - Heats
Women's 4 x 100m Freestyle Relay - Heats


Sun 10 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Men's 400m Individual Medley Final
Women's 100m Butterfly Semifinal
Men's 400m Freestyle Final
Women's 400m Individual Medley Final
Men's 100m Breaststroke Semifinal
Women's 4 x 100m Freestyle Relay Final

18:30 Evening Session

Women's 100m Backstroke - Heats
Men's 200m Freestyle - Heats
Women's 100m Breaststroke - Heats
Men's 100m Backstroke - Heats
Women's 400m Freestyle - Heats
Men's 4 x 100m Freestyle Relay - Heats


Mon 11 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Women's 100m Backstroke Semifinal
Men's 200m Freestyle Semifinal
Women's 100m Butterfly Final
Men's 100m Breaststroke Final
Women's 100m Breaststroke Semifinal
Men's 100m Backstroke Semifinal
Women's 400m Freestyle Final
Men's 4 x 100m Freestyle Relay Final

18:30 Evening Session

Women's 200m Freestyle - Heats
Men's 200m Butterfly - Heats
Women's 200m Individual Medley - Heats


Tue 12 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Women's 200m Freestyle Semifinal
Men's 200m Freestyle Final
Women's 100m Backstroke Final
Men's 100m Backstroke Final
Women's 100m Breaststroke Final
Men's 200m Butterfly Semifinal
Women's 200m Individual Medley Semifinal

18:30 Evening Session

Men's 100m Freestyle - Heats
Women's 200m Butterfly - Heats
Men's 200m Breaststroke - Heats
Men's 4 x 200m Freestyle Relay - Heats


Wed 13 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Men's 100m Freestyle Semifinal
Women's 200m Freestyle Final
Men's 200m Butterfly Final
Women's 200m Butterfly Semifinal
Men's 200m Breaststroke Semifinal
Women's 200m Individual Medley Final
Men's 4 x 200m Freestyle Relay Final

18:30 Evening Session

Women's 100m Freestyle - Heats
Men's 200m Backstroke - Heats
Women's 200m Breaststroke - Heats
Men's 200m Individual Medley - Heats
Women's 4 x 200m Freestyle Relay - Heats


Thu 14 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Men's 200m Breaststroke Final
Women's 100m Freestyle Semifinal
Men's 200m Backstroke Semifinal
Women's 200m Butterfly Final
Men's 100m Freestyle Final
Women's 200m Breaststroke Semifinal
Men's 200m Individual Medley Semifinal
Women's 4 x 200m Freestyle Relay Final

18:30 Evening Session

Men's 50m Freestyle - Heats
Women's 800m Freestyle - Heats
Men's 100m Butterfly - Heats
Women's 200m Backstroke - Heats


Fri 15 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Men's 50m Freestyle Semifinal
Women's 200m Breaststroke Final
Men's 200m Backstroke Final
Women's 200m Backstroke Semifinal
Men's 200m Individual Medley Final
Women's 100m Freestyle Final
Men's 100m Butterfly Semifinal

18:30 Evening Session

Women's 50m Freestyle - Heats
Men's 1500m Freestyle - Heats
Women's 4 x 100m Medley Relay - Heats
Men's 4 x 100m Medley Relay - Heats


Sat 16 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Women's 200m Backstroke Final
Men's 100m Butterfly Final
Women's 800m Freestyle Final
Men's 50m Freestyle Final
Women's 50m Freestyle Semifinal


Sun 17 August 2008
10:00 Morning Session

Women's 50m Freestyle Final
Men's 1500m Freestyle Final
Women's 4 x 100m Medley Relay Final
Men's 4 x 100m Medley Relay Final