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thewookiee
August 6th, 2008, 12:14 PM
Consider the talk of Phelps winning 8 gold, I wonder who everyone thinks will win the 400 Free Relay.

There are several countries that have the potiential to win this race.

hofffam
August 6th, 2008, 12:41 PM
The sum of the 4 best flat start times has the USA about 2 secs ahead of the French. I do not see how Bousquet is any better a relay swimmer than any of the Americans. Phelps will likely lead - which minimizes the impact of his supposedly mediocre relay starts. Lezak, Weber-Gale, and someone else, will absolutely turn the water into froth.

DanSad
August 6th, 2008, 12:42 PM
Not questioning the last reply but would like to see the swimmer's times for US and France. thanks

thewookiee
August 6th, 2008, 12:43 PM
For the record, both Bernard and Bousquet have recorded sub :47 second relay splits. Never said he was/wasn't better than any of the Americans, just that he has had some awesome relay swims.

JoeBob
August 6th, 2008, 01:27 PM
Not questioning the last reply but would like to see the swimmer's times for US and France. thanks

From Swimnews.com's 2008 rankings....
USA:
47.58 LEZAK, Jason
47.78 WEBER-GALE, Garrett
47.92 PHELPS, Michael
48.29 BRUNELLI, Nicholas (Not at the Games)
48.35 JONES, Cullen
48.46 ADRIAN, Nathan
48.53 GREVERS, Matthew
48.59 WILDMAN-TOBRINER, Ben

France:
47.50 BERNARD, Alain
48.02 GILOT, Fabien
48.38 LEVEAUX, Amaury
48.52 BOUSQUET, Frederick
48.95 MALLET, Gregory
48.96 STEIMETZ, Boris

It's going to be one heck of a race!

hofffam
August 6th, 2008, 01:35 PM
My "math" was off. The sum of the 4 fastest flat start USA vs. France via the World rankings in FINA is 191.63 secs for the USA vs. 192.42 for France. The difference is .79 secs.

I still think the USA will take command of this race. I think Phelps will have huge motivation to kick the relay off and the rest will be history.

Jeff Commings
August 6th, 2008, 01:46 PM
I am predicting a French win. I expect one or more of the Americans to falter on their legs, plus the French pushed that world record unshaved earlier in the year and will be pumped up.

Charge
August 6th, 2008, 02:17 PM
I'm actually looking for Phelps to come within a tenth of the world record here. Americans win by at least 1/2 a second, but it will be a GREAT race.

hofffam
August 6th, 2008, 02:49 PM
I am predicting a French win. I expect one or more of the Americans to falter on their legs, plus the French pushed that world record unshaved earlier in the year and will be pumped up.

Unshaved in LZRs? Is it that much of difference anymore?

Why do you think an American will falter (it would have to be in finals)? Phelps won't. Lezak didn't falter at the WCs. Neither did Jones. Neil Walker isn't on the relay anymore. I don't see Nathan in finals unless he blazes in prelims. They'll pick a veteran, right?

thewookiee
August 6th, 2008, 03:06 PM
I think some people are expecting the American's to repeat a lot of their trials preformances. That doesn't always happen.

Phelps and Lezak are the only 2 with Olympic experience. I think the race will be close, but I don't think the US will win.

knelson
August 6th, 2008, 03:58 PM
I picked France, but I think it will be a dogfight.

Paul Smith
August 6th, 2008, 05:45 PM
Unshaved in LZRs? Is it that much of difference anymore?

Why do you think an American will falter (it would have to be in finals)? Phelps won't. Lezak didn't falter at the WCs. Neither did Jones. Neil Walker isn't on the relay anymore. I don't see Nathan in finals unless he blazes in prelims. They'll pick a veteran, right?

As much as I hate to diss a fellow UCSB alum, Lezak's the wild card and the one most likely to lose his legs...yes he's VERY fast...but you don't always know what your going to get...unlike the other guys he trains mostly alone and I think his conditioning for multiple races is suspect. I will say this, he does tend to swim best on relays.

Also...remember his "cruising" prelims last go around and not making it into finals? Classic Lezak.

ehoch
August 6th, 2008, 06:12 PM
I am hoping that the US will win, but my guess is that the French will take this. Why ?

Leveaux - don't know him, never seen him swim, but anybody able to swim 21.38 and 1:46, must be able to swim 47.5

The South Africans are a little bit of a wild card - they don't have the top times to show - I think they will battle AUS for Bronze.

hofffam
August 6th, 2008, 06:49 PM
As much as I hate to diss a fellow UCSB alum, Lezak's the wild card and the one most likely to lose his legs...yes he's VERY fast...but you don't always know what your going to get...unlike the other guys he trains mostly alone and I think his conditioning for multiple races is suspect. I will say this, he does tend to swim best on relays.

Also...remember his "cruising" prelims last go around and not making it into finals? Classic Lezak.

I was worried about Lezak at Trials. I wasn't sure he would have it in him. Would he swim like Neil Walker? Just past his best? Lezak was superb in the 100.

The 4 x 100 comes early in Beijing. The prelims are Sunday and finals Monday. No American except Phelps will have an individual race before prelims of the relay. So Lezak and the rest of the possible swimmers should be fresh. Lezak swam well when they set the WR - as did Cullen and Phelps. My biggest worry about Lezak is that he 100% peaked for trials.

Paul Smith
August 6th, 2008, 07:02 PM
I was worried about Lezak at Trials. I wasn't sure he would have it in him. Would he swim like Neil Walker? Just past his best? Lezak was superb in the 100.

The 4 x 100 comes early in Beijing. The prelims are Sunday and finals Monday. No American except Phelps will have an individual race before prelims of the relay. So Lezak and the rest of the possible swimmers should be fresh. Lezak swam well when they set the WR - as did Cullen and Phelps. My biggest worry about Lezak is that he 100% peaked for trials.

He had a superb prelim swim (22.8/24.7 = 47.5)..and he survived in finals with a solid swim but much slower coming home (22.8/25.2)....he also commented on how much the prelim swim had taken it's toll on him.

The good news as you said is that the relay final is his first swim...thankfully he won't have to swim it in prelims...the bigger concern is how he'll hold on for up to 3 more 100's?

Wild card.

Charge
August 6th, 2008, 07:51 PM
If they an get Phelps to go first and give them a lead, even a small one, I think they take it. It is sooooooo much easier to swim from the lead than to play catchup. Guys playing catchup over-swim the first lap (or 2 laps if it's th 4x200) and have nothing left.

Iwannafly
August 7th, 2008, 08:34 AM
I work with several French people, so there's a nice little rivalry brewing. I think the French may pull off the upset, but I'm hoping for a record breaking performance from our boys! I would love to see Phelps go 47.6 something and start the US off with a nice lead to hold.

aquageek
August 7th, 2008, 09:39 AM
I caution anyone against betting on the French in a situation where courage and resolve is required, unless it's fine cuisine.

Iwannafly
August 7th, 2008, 09:48 AM
Oui, bon appetit! Comment ca va?

rooinoz
August 7th, 2008, 06:06 PM
Well, One thing I am almost positive of is that it WON'T be Australia, and I doubt they can even medal. Eamon Sullivan maybe the second fastest swimmer in the world this year but he cannot carry the rest of the team. Sadly, for this Aussie (moi) it won't be Australia. I do believe it will be USA. Although the french have some great swimmers, I do not think they have the solidarity of the Americans nor the depth.
I think it will go Gold - USA, silver - France; Bronze - South Africa or Netherlands

Allen Stark
August 7th, 2008, 11:48 PM
I think it is an advantage to swim the anchor from slightly behind if your anchor is an experienced swimmer who responds we'll to pressure situations(see the 1976 womens 400 FR.)The US must have the lead before the anchor as I don't think we don't have anyone who can keep with Bernard.That said I am still going with the US as I think Phelps will swim an amazing lead off and I suspect our starts will be better.

knelson
August 8th, 2008, 09:58 AM
Someone brought this scenario up on collegeswimming.com: what about the possibility of Phelps not getting to swim the relay? It seems like a huge stretch, but it's certainly possible. What kind of swim would it take to knock Phelps out of his spot? For all intents and purposes Weber-Gale and Lezak are locks since they were 1-2 in the 100 free at Trials and they have the fastest two times in U.S. history. But if two prelims swimmers manage to swim a 47 low could Phelps' spot be in jeopardy?

thewookiee
August 8th, 2008, 11:04 AM
You would think that if 2 more swimmers split 47 real low or 46 high, then they would get the remaining 2 spots....but with the hype around 8 possible golds, I think he still gets one of the spots.

tjburk
August 8th, 2008, 11:06 AM
You would think that if 2 more swimmers split 47 real low or 46 high, then they would get the remaining 2 spots....but with the hype around 8 possible golds, I think he still gets one of the spots.

Remember, he can still get one if he swims prelims or finals.....if I remember correctly!!

knelson
August 8th, 2008, 11:15 AM
Remember, he can still get one if he swims prelims or finals.....if I remember correctly!!

That's true, but I doubt he'll swim prelims. Usually the swimmers who placed 3-6 at Trials swim prelims--I think--then the fastest two from prelims swim finals along with the 1-2 finishers from Trials. In this case probably only one prelim swimmer will get to advance to finals because of Phelps.

A similar thing happened in Athens where Reese told the prelims swimmers they had to swim faster than a certain time (0.5 seconds faster than Phelps' best or something) to get to swim finals. You would think the same thing would apply this time, but the extra heat of Phelps' quest for eight golds would make it very interesting if he lost his spot on the team.

thewookiee
August 8th, 2008, 11:21 AM
If 2 people swim considerably faster than his time, then they should be on the relay...it's about putting the 4 fastest swimmers on the team at the meet.

tjburk
August 8th, 2008, 11:29 AM
As of right now Phelps is the 3rd fastest American in the 100 FR with a 47.92 behind Lezak and Weber-Gale.

knelson
August 8th, 2008, 11:30 AM
If 2 people swim considerably faster than his time, then they should be on the relay...it's about putting the 4 fastest swimmers on the team at the meet.

And I think most swimmers would understand that, but it would still be a major story.

Remember the situation with Carl Lewis at the 1996 Olympics? Here's a summary lifted from Wikipedia:

Lewis qualified for American Olympic team for the fifth time in the long jump, the only time an American man has done so.[62] And though he finished eighth in the 100 m final at the Olympic Trials, because he was on the Olympic team he could be considered for the relay team. [ibid, p. 10] At the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, injuries to world-record holder Powell and the leading long-jumper in the world, IvŠn Pedroso, affected their performances. Lewis, on the other hand, was in good form. Though he did not match past performances, his third-round leap of 8.50 m won gold by 21 cm over second-place James Beckford of Jamaica.[63] He thus became one of only three Olympians to win the same individual event four times[64], joining Danish sailor Paul Bert ElvstrÝm, who won the Finn class from London 1948 (then Firefly class, which was transformed into Finn class as of Helsinki 1952) to Rome 1960, and discus thrower Al Oerter of the United States, who won the discus throw from Melbourne 1956 to Mexico City 1968. Additionally, Lewis’ ninth gold medal tied him with Paavo Nurmi, Larissa Latynina and Mark Spitz who have had more gold medals than any other athlete except Ray Ewry who had 10 (if the 1906 Intercalated Games are included).[65]

Controversy struck when as Track and Field News put it, “Lewis’ pissy attitude in the whole relay hoo-hah a few days later served only to take the luster off his final gold.”[63]

After Lewis’ unexpected long jump gold, it was noted by observers that he could surpass Nurmi as the track and field athlete with most Olympic gold medals if he entered the 4 x 100 m relay team. Any member of the American Olympic men’s track team could be used, even if he never ran the event. Lewis said, “If they asked me, I’d run it in a second. But they haven’t asked me to run it.” He further suggested on Larry King Live that viewers phone the United States Olympic Committee to weigh in on the situation. Lewis had skipped the mandatory relay training camp and demanded to run the anchor leg, which added to the debate. The final decision was to not add Lewis to the team. Olympic team coach Erv Hunt said, “The basis of their [the relay team’s] opinion was ‘We want to run, we worked our butts off and we deserve to be here.’” [ibid, p. 31] The American relay team finished second to Canada, the first time an American 4 x 100 m men’s relay team was defeated in an Olympic final, if the 1960 Rome Olympics disqualification is not counted. Since the Canadian team was anchored by Donovan Bailey, who days earlier set a world record in the 100 m, and the Canadians ran the fastest time ever recorded in America, Lewis' addition to the team may not have changed the result. “Amid the American hype, Canada was indeed being overlooked, despite having Worlds silver medalist Bruny Surin to back up the new WR holder Bailey,” said Track and Field News. [ibid., p. 30] But the controversy was a distraction to the team, and whether Lewis’ presence would have made a difference is irresolvable.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Lewis#The_1996_Olympics)

I remember at the time thinking this was ridiculous. Why should Carl Lewis get a shot at his tenth gold medal when there were other guys who actually earned a spot on the relay and were probably looking for their very first gold?

tjburk
August 8th, 2008, 11:40 AM
Sometimes experience makes a lot of difference.....

lefty
August 8th, 2008, 01:02 PM
Someone brought this scenario up on collegeswimming.com: what about the possibility of Phelps not getting to swim the relay? It seems like a huge stretch, but it's certainly possible. What kind of swim would it take to knock Phelps out of his spot? For all intents and purposes Weber-Gale and Lezak are locks since they were 1-2 in the 100 free at Trials and they have the fastest two times in U.S. history. But if two prelims swimmers manage to swim a 47 low could Phelps' spot be in jeopardy?


You would need 3 46 low splits, an a WR leadoff to keep Phelps off the relay. Weber-Gale and Lezak will be taken off before Phelps. The 8 gold march is worth, I don't know $250,000,000 - $1,000,000,000 to NBC in future and current Olympics. They take him off the relay on the 2nd night? No WAY. Goodness, NBC got finals moved to the morning....

knelson
August 8th, 2008, 01:16 PM
The 8 gold march is worth, I don't know $250,000,000 - $1,000,000,000 to NBC in future and current Olympics. They take him off the relay on the 2nd night? No WAY. Goodness, NBC got finals moved to the morning....

Luckily NBC doesn't have a position on the U.S. coaching staff :)

thewookiee
August 8th, 2008, 01:54 PM
Luckily NBC doesn't have a position on the U.S. coaching staff :)



This one would be too easy to start a conspiracy theory....lol

knelson
August 8th, 2008, 02:20 PM
We already know Schubert is on Speedo's payroll. Maybe he's on NBC's as well? :)

lefty
August 8th, 2008, 04:09 PM
Luckily NBC doesn't have a position on the U.S. coaching staff :)


Yeah, I was being cynical. I don't know, I really don't think there is anything that can be done to get Phelps off that relay. If the 4 guys detroy the WR (and I actually think they will atleast set the WR ) it won't matter.