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View Full Version : 100m butterfly - Cavic beats Phelps?



Salnikov22
August 14th, 2008, 09:36 AM
VIDEO: Men's 100m Butterfly - Heat 9 (http://vinovo.magnify.net/video/100-meter-Butterfly-Olympics)



1 Milorad CAVIC SRB 50.76 OR
2 Michael PHELPS USA 50.87
3 Andrii SERDINOV 7 UKR 51.10
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justforfun
August 14th, 2008, 09:46 AM
I think Crocker is in deep trouble. He barely made it out of the heats--I hope he was holding back, but I won't be surprised if he does not make the final.

new
August 14th, 2008, 10:09 AM
phelps is in trouble...

tjburk
August 14th, 2008, 10:11 AM
phelps is in trouble...

Not a chance....if he is swimming that fast in Heats....everybody else is in trouble

Paul Smith
August 14th, 2008, 10:28 AM
phelps is in trouble...

Doudtful...he cruised that prelim swim.

Cavic is the one that most likely will swim slower in the finals.

Phelps will be 49+

Crocker is done....still can't believe with it all on the line he doesn't wear a full suit in prelims.

justforfun
August 14th, 2008, 10:32 AM
Doudtful...he cruised that prelim swim.

Cavic is the one that most likely will swim slower in the finals.

Phelps will be 49+

Crocker is done....still can't believe with it all on the line he doesn't wear a full suit in prelims.

Maybe Crocker is thinking he can pull a Peirsol. The problem is, it's a long ways from 51.9 to 50 point low.

Paul Smith
August 14th, 2008, 10:35 AM
Maybe Crocker is thinking he can pull a Peirsol. The problem is, it's a long ways from 51.9 to 50 point low.

Peirsol didn't shave for prelims...again high risk stuff for the largest swimming race in the world...with a 4 year wait to come back again (if your lucky)...ask Lezak about prelims in Athens....seems he learned something from that experience.

thewookiee
August 14th, 2008, 10:43 AM
Never say never. Phelps is capable of being beat in this event or the IM. Granted, I would say this event maybe his toughest to win.

If Lochte didn't have the 200 back and less than 25 minutes before the 200 IM, I would love to see him win both events. I just don't see it happening with him having that little time to recover.

So, I think phelps will probaly win the IM but could lose the 100 fly

hofffam
August 14th, 2008, 10:58 AM
Phelps 100 fly splits: 24.41/26.46.

That 2nd 50 was far faster than anyone which shows how much speed he has on demand. He'll go out a bit faster, and come back even stronger. No one will match him. I just don't think Cavic will continue to improve through semis and finals like Phelps will.

For GoodSmith - do you think Crocker is "on?" Is he doing a rope-a-dope?

I bet not. I just don't think his race management is as good as Peirsol. It is becoming more like Hansen's race management.

ande
August 14th, 2008, 11:03 AM
last year phelps was
48.4 in the 100 free
50.8 in the 100 fl

this year he went
47.5 in the 100 free
if he has a proportional drop in the 100 fl
he'll be just fine
no one can come close to michaels 2nd 50
he hasn't shown his cards yet and won't till finals
but the fact that he brought his 100 free back in 24.20 and last year he brought his 100 free back in 25.0 bodes well for his 100 fly

he'll wreak havoc on cavic and the other fly and die swimmers in finals

I think he'll be 50 low 49 high

mctrusty
August 14th, 2008, 11:08 AM
Phelps will be 49+


Seconded.

Sam Perry
August 14th, 2008, 11:14 AM
he'll wreak havoc on cavic

Nice, you need to trademark that one!

PJElder
August 14th, 2008, 12:19 PM
Did anyone notice that Phelps has less than 30 minutes, especially when you factor in the awards ceremony, between 200 IM final and 100 Fly semi?

thewookiee
August 14th, 2008, 12:37 PM
The difference though one is a final and one a semi-final. Even slightly off Phelps should still be good enough to make the top 8 of the fly.

Lochte definitly has his work cut out for him tonight. Hope he wins one of the 2.

Jazz Hands
August 14th, 2008, 12:38 PM
I have a prediction: this race will be awesome.

Warren
August 14th, 2008, 01:20 PM
I feel bad not rooting for the US but...Go Race Club!

Salnikov22
August 14th, 2008, 08:38 PM
I have a prediction: this race will be awesome.
We will see, soon

SwimStud
August 14th, 2008, 09:51 PM
I feel bad not rooting for the US but...Go Race Club!

Warren, don't feel bad for rooting for a great race over a national domination. That's admirable and shows class.

Charge
August 14th, 2008, 10:01 PM
The difference though one is a final and one a semi-final. Even slightly off Phelps should still be good enough to make the top 8 of the fly.

Lochte definitly has his work cut out for him tonight. Hope he wins one of the 2.


Phelps, having only 20 minutes or so rest, will likely have to go very close to 100% to make finals in the fly. Just b/c of the lack of rest.

zmontgo
August 14th, 2008, 10:57 PM
if you watch what micheal is doing, he is conserving for finals, so anybody and everybody can have a faster time, he just needs to swim fast enough to make finals, I gaurantee that he's going to put the hammer down during finals.

Salnikov22
August 15th, 2008, 12:30 AM
http://vinovo.magnify.net/video/100m-Mens-Butterfly-Olympics
VIDEO: 100m Men's Butterfly semifinals 1 & 2

1. Cavic 50.92
2. Phelps 50. 97

Syd
August 15th, 2008, 12:40 AM
That's the hardest I have ever seen Phelps breathe (after the 100 fly semi). He really looked tired but I am sure it was only because barely 40 mins earlier he broke the world record for the 200 IM.

He is going to go out harder in the final and come back faster than any of the other competitors will be able to. My money is still on him.

Flurpo
August 15th, 2008, 02:52 AM
Hey...I know that kid...when did Cavic become a Serb...he swam here in Socal?

JoeBob
August 15th, 2008, 03:07 AM
Hey...I know that kid...when did Cavic become a Serb...he swam here in Socal?

He chose to represent Serbia years ago.
He's trying to pull a Martin Zubero. No worries, Phelps will get him.

Salnikov22
August 15th, 2008, 08:07 AM
"One day, if they talk about how Michael Phelps won 7 gold medals and lost a chance to win 8, they'll talk about who that guy is who took it away from him," said Cavic, who was born in Anaheim. "I'd love to be that guy."

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/cavic-phelps-olympic-2125547-won-games

cantwait4bike
August 15th, 2008, 11:43 AM
Will Phelps have to break WR to beat Cavic? Does Phelps have some rest this morning (west Coast) in order to beat this Serb-American?

JonasTris
August 15th, 2008, 11:49 AM
I say Cavic will beat Phelps. He also knew that his US residency would get revoked for that, so he went ahead and decided to compete for Serbia.

:-)

hofffam
August 15th, 2008, 12:00 PM
Will Phelps have to break WR to beat Cavic? Does Phelps have some rest this morning (west Coast) in order to beat this Serb-American?

I think Phelps had no races between his 100 fly semis and the 100 fly finals tonight. So he will be as rested as he can be. If he can go 50.9 20 minutes after a WR 200 IM swim, can't he go 49.9 rested?

tjburk
August 15th, 2008, 12:04 PM
Correct, he has nothing until Finals tonight.....and then nothing else but the relay after that.......he will make a statement tonight....watch.....

49.9?

mctrusty
August 15th, 2008, 12:05 PM
Will Phelps have to break WR to beat Cavic? Does Phelps have some rest this morning (west Coast) in order to beat this Serb-American?

Rest will make all the difference for Phelps. Having a couple of races in will help Crocker crank one out in finals. Cavic might drop to 3rd. Crocker looked pretty good in semis last night, I think he's getting warmed up and he and Phelps will both beat Cavic.

Regardless of outcome, it will be exciting to watch.

aquageek
August 15th, 2008, 12:05 PM
...can't he go 49.9 rested?

If not, it will be a big crappy choking disappointment of a swim for him.

quicksilver
August 15th, 2008, 12:05 PM
Agree. Phelps will be rested, and should go a bit faster.
Odds are also that Cavic had a great swim, and might not repeat that performance.

It'll be a good horse race to the flags.
And Phelps never seems to run out of gas on the last 20 meters.

If anything he gets faster towards the latter part of the 100.

SLOmmafan
August 15th, 2008, 01:12 PM
Well, either way I think Phelps will edge out Crocker tonight - which should nearly lock him in for at least 7 golds.

Question: How big of a dissapointment will people consider Phelps only matching Spitz, and not beating his gold medal count?

Either way, Phelps has surpassed Spitz an every other way - performing at a 3rd Olympics, dominating the field at 2 of those games, and will most likely come back strong in 4 years at London.

Warren
August 15th, 2008, 01:55 PM
Phelps (lane 5) is sandwiched inbetween Cavic (lane 4) and Crocker (lane 6). Both of these guys are going to be out ahead of phelps. Could this be an issue for phelps, swimming behind these two guys in unclean water?

ande
August 15th, 2008, 01:58 PM
cavic has shown his cards and speed
phelps hasn't in the 100 fl but has in the finals of other events

not sure if crocker has yet
maybe
well see tonight

ande

hofffam
August 15th, 2008, 02:00 PM
Rest will make all the difference for Phelps. Having a couple of races in will help Crocker crank one out in finals. Cavic might drop to 3rd. Crocker looked pretty good in semis last night, I think he's getting warmed up and he and Phelps will both beat Cavic.

Regardless of outcome, it will be exciting to watch.

Crocker DID look good in semis last night. Man he swims a pretty fly. Sometimes I forget how good he is because we don't see him much. I think he'll swim well tonight.

I still think Phelps is just too strong - too much momemtum combined with a full day's rest. They all know that if Phelps is within 1/2 a body length at the 50 the race is over.

Frank Thompson
August 15th, 2008, 02:11 PM
I agree with Ande and Phelps will wreak havok on Cavic and I will add a statement of my own that he will put a shocker on Crocker. With one days rest and the importance of this race, I think he is going to win.

I knew yesterday, that regardless of what Ryan Lochte did in the 200 Back, that he was not going to win the 200 IM. In fact I did not think Lochte would be Laszlo Cseh in the 200 IM because of the 29 minutes of recovery between those races. With the medal awards cermonies and warm down that is not a lot of time to get ready for a big race with the two best swimmers in the world. Phelps really pounded him in the 400 IM (4:03.84 vs 4:08.09) and so did Cseh (4:06.16 vs 4:08.09) and I just did not think in a FINAL swim that he could pull off this against rested swimmers of this caliber. Plus the enjoyment of winning a gold medal and going thru the awards put a strain on Ryan to get ready for that final.

Phelps had to go thru this also but he has been thru this before and this was just a semi final. With very little rest he almost matched Cavic and went faster than Crocker, who has had only one swim previous to this for the whole week. Crocker swam the prelims this AM and did a :50.8 split from a very conservative start and everyone knows why he did that so his swim is almost a flat start but is still slightly slower than what Phelps did after swimming the 200 IM.

This will be the biggest race for Phelps up to now because it sets up his 7th gold medal and his chances for swimming the medley relay. Also there is a million dollar bonus if he wins to night so the pressure will be the highest its been to now. This race is worth more that just the 1 million because if he wins and sets the record, this just sets up all the future possibilities for endorsements and sponsorships on a global level. For these reasons other than the swimming ones, I am picking Phelps to win his 7th gold and break the World Record. I am not sure if he will go under 50 seconds but I think he will break the :50.40 standard.

hofffam
August 15th, 2008, 02:42 PM
Crocker's 50.85 minus his .42 RT plus a typical flat start RT of .75 says his swim was about a 51.18 flat start.

That's good speed but not fast enough to beat a likely low 50 (or better) swim from Phelps.

Daaaave
August 15th, 2008, 02:57 PM
Phelps (lane 5) is sandwiched inbetween Cavic (lane 4) and Crocker (lane 6). Both of these guys are going to be out ahead of phelps. Could this be an issue for phelps, swimming behind these two guys in unclean water?

Phelps is almost always behind the field at the turn and the water is never clean in a 100FL at this level. Sitting between the other main contenders is exactly where he needs to be. Phelps should win in standard come-from-behind fashion, but if he doesn't get it, it won't be because of lane placement.

Warren
August 15th, 2008, 03:01 PM
Go Race Club!

zanadu
August 15th, 2008, 03:21 PM
As much as I like Cavic he seems to have gotten a big mouth from hanging around Gary Hall Jr. too much. He needs to STFU and concentrate on swimming fast. Phelps only did a 400 warm down from the 200 IM and still put down a sub 51 performance in the fly. When Phelps is rested tomorrow he is quite simply looking to demolish the field.

Daaaave
August 15th, 2008, 03:44 PM
As much as I like Cavic he seems to have gotten a big mouth from hanging around Gary Hall Jr. too much. He needs to STFU and concentrate on swimming fast.

I want Phelps to win, of course, and believe that he will, but I see zero wrong with what Cavic is doing. He wants to win, why not say so? Why else would he be there? In the same interview he also acknowledged that it would be foolish to ever discount Phelps. I don't think it's disrespectful or trash talk to say he wants to be the guy who wins this race and is willing to dash this whole 8-golds thing to do so.

It's different from Bernard, who allegedly said "we will win." Why is Cavic different from Lochte, who said before the Games something like, "I want him to do well, but if Michael doesn't get 8 golds that means I've done something right"

zanadu
August 15th, 2008, 03:57 PM
I want Phelps to win, of course, and believe that he will, but I see zero wrong with what Cavic is doing. He wants to win, why not say so? Why else would he be there? In the same interview he also acknowledged that it would be foolish to ever discount Phelps. I don't think it's disrespectful or trash talk to say he wants to be the guy who wins this race and is willing to dash this whole 8-golds thing to do so.

It's different from Bernard, who allegedly said "we will win." Why is Cavic different from Lochte, who said before the Games something like, "I want him to do well, but if Michael doesn't get 8 golds that means I've done something right"Because Cavic probably jinxed himself, seriously.

Warren
August 15th, 2008, 03:58 PM
I'm with everyone else thinking that Phelps has gotten faster in the 100's but after looking at a bunch of stats, I don't know now.

Everyone says that since phelps dropped from 47.92 to a 47.51, he should drop at least that much in the 100 fly, right? The 47.92 was from trials in a 100 free prelim. Phelps did not compete in the seim-final or final. I'm pretty sure that if he did swim in the final that he would have droped more time. Plus when you are swimming next to eamon sullivan and leaveux, in a relay that you have to win, it makes it a little easier to go fast. So this 100 free drop applied to what his 100 fly time is going to be is less reliable than what it seems to be.

Another thing that people are saying is that phelps is just saving up for the big one. In the semifinals at trails, phelps went a 51.10 after the 200 IM finals that same night. The next day he came back "rested" and went a 50.89. Thats only a .21 drop. And he was definatly going balls out in that race. If history repeats its self, he goes a 50.76, the same time that Cavic has gone this week, OMG! This is going to be one hell of a race. But who knows these are just stats, you can throw this out the window as soon as they step up on the block. I'm not making any claims here but looking at this, I have no idea whats going to happen.

O, and another thing, Phelps did not go a top time when he beat Ian Crocker in Athens.

hofffam
August 15th, 2008, 04:18 PM
I'm with everyone else thinking that Phelps has gotten faster in the 100's but after looking at a bunch of stats, I don't know now.

Everyone says that since phelps dropped from 47.92 to a 47.51, he should drop at least that much in the 100 fly, right? The 47.92 was from trials in a 100 free prelim. Phelps did not compete in the seim-final or final. I'm pretty sure that if he did swim in the final that he would have droped more time. Plus when you are swimming next to eamon sullivan and leaveux, in a relay that you have to win, it makes it a little easier to go fast. So this 100 free drop applied to what his 100 fly time is going to be is less reliable than what it seems to be.

Another thing that people are saying is that phelps is just saving up for the big one. In the semifinals at trails, phelps went a 51.10 after the 200 IM finals that same night. The next day he came back "rested" and went a 50.89. Thats only a .21 drop. And he was definatly going balls out in that race. If history repeats its self, he goes a 50.76, the same time that Cavic has gone this week, OMG! This is going to be one hell of a race. But who knows these are just stats, you can throw this out the window as soon as they step up on the block. I'm not making any claims here but looking at this, I have no idea whats going to happen.

O, and another thing, Phelps did not go a top time when he beat Ian Crocker in Athens.

Yeah.....but......this is the Olympics not trials. Phelps didn't have to win trials. No one thought Lezak could go 46.06 but he did because of extreme conditions.

And yes it is the Olympics for Cavic too - but he's not Phelps! My guess is he will overswim it. He'll swim the first 50 in mortal fear that Phelps will reel him in.

And he will. The self-described godfather of swimming can't call in any favors to change the outcome.

Charge
August 15th, 2008, 04:22 PM
Agree with Ande, Cavic's best time may have been his first one. He def gave 100% on both swims and was fully rested. Phelps has a goal, and if he reaches it it will send shock waves through the building.

rtodd
August 15th, 2008, 07:53 PM
Phelps will smash the WR completely uncontested.

brain dead moron
August 15th, 2008, 08:22 PM
Like Ande's comment
Should be interesting tonight; cavic did very well in his heat setting an olympic record 50.76- i am sure that phelps was surprised by cavic's effort, not surprised by cavic swimming his first 50 m fast but cavic has shaved off 1 second off of his second 50m time (27.31)compared to his 2007 world effort in australia (28.28)and his h2h effort against phelps at the swimvitational in omaha in june (28.58).

and almost reeled cavic in falling short by about 0.1 seconds; interesting to note phelps swam his fastest ever 2nd 50m in the 100m butterfly heat - chasing cavic (26.46);
knowing that he can't let cavic (or crocker who also swims a fast first 50) phelps came out to set a faster first 50 in the semi which he did swimming a 24.24 in the first 50 (he clocked 24.41 in the heat).

Phelps first 50m in 100m butterfly time best was 23.99 in 2007 world - so he can go faster in his first 50. More impressively phelps swam the 24.24 time in the semi - just after setting a world record in the 200 IM 45 minutes earlier
putting the two legs together first 50 from the semi 24.24 and 2nd 50 from the heat 26.46 and you have a 50.70 - better than cavic
phelps has shown that he saves his best for the finals as he has had to pace himself all week - he had his longest rest time over the last 24 hours and was able to skip out on the 4 x100 IM relay heats for further rest(interestingly crocker took part in the prelim relay);

I think Phelps starts very fast and dares and anyone to stay with him. crocker will likely swim better than he has in the first two heats but crocker has less rest now and phelps has bested crocker 3 times already this year unless crocker was really sandbagging in the heat, and semi

Prediction:
Gold: Phelps 50.26 WR

zmontgo
August 15th, 2008, 10:27 PM
what did I write, it comes down to finals, everyone is all talk until that final, that's where the true champ comes out, everyone can talk as much smack as they want, it seems to come back and bite them though, kinda like a curse, kinda like the french saying they "were going to smash the americans"

art_z
August 15th, 2008, 10:36 PM
I have a prediction: this race will be awesome.


dude, your crystal ball was right on!

art_z
August 15th, 2008, 10:38 PM
Phelps will smash the WR completely uncontested.

and your crystal ball was a bit cloudy :D

ALM
August 15th, 2008, 10:44 PM
Hmmm, they just said that Serbia has filed a protest...

SwimStud
August 15th, 2008, 10:46 PM
Hmmm, they just said that Serbia has filed a protest...

Well I thought he touched first too. Maybe the pads don't register until after a certain amount of pressure? I can't see this getting turned over though, and it would be ugly if they did. How about a redo? I could watch that one again!

hofffam
August 15th, 2008, 10:51 PM
Well I thought he touched first too. Maybe the pads don't register until after a certain amount of pressure? I can't see this getting turned over though, and it would be ugly if they did. How about a redo? I could watch that one again!

Of course they have to register at a certain level of pressure. Otherwise waves would trigger the pads. I see no way they could overturn the results from the timing system. Video? No way.....

art_z
August 15th, 2008, 10:52 PM
Well I thought he touched first too. Maybe the pads don't register until after a certain amount of pressure? I can't see this getting turned over though, and it would be ugly if they did. How about a redo? I could watch that one again!


pads don't lie. of course there has to be a certain amount of pressure, otherwise the wave in front of the swimmer would stop the clock. with it that close, I don't see how anyone is going to be able to determine who touched first without relying on the pads.

And if they do overturn it, what type of precedent does that set. All close races subject to manual review and overturning? At that point, do we go back to hand held stop watches and the ref's eyeballs?

SwimStud
August 15th, 2008, 10:54 PM
pads don't lie. of course there has to be a certain amount of pressure, otherwise the wave in front of the swimmer would stop the clock. with it that close, I don't see how anyone is going to be able to determine who touched first without relying on the pads.

And if they do overturn it, what type of precedent does that set. All close races subject to manual review and overturning? At that point, do we go back to hand held stop watches and the ref's eyeballs?

Yeah absolutely it'd be a horror show.

Shaman
August 15th, 2008, 10:56 PM
Of course they have to register at a certain level of pressure. Otherwise waves would trigger the pads. I see no way they could overturn the results from the timing system. Video? No way.....

Video is how it's backed up. You'll notice there's not timer. They take a shot every 1/100 of a second I believe.

Jeff Commings
August 15th, 2008, 11:03 PM
Hmmm, they just said that Serbia has filed a protest...

(shakes head)

There are sore losers, and there are sore losers.

Salnikov22
August 16th, 2008, 12:12 AM
http://vinovo.magnify.net/video/100-meter-Butterfly-Final-Oly
VIDEO:Final 100m butterfly

Hm, close race

Ron Lockman
August 16th, 2008, 01:23 AM
I don`t believe it!,...I mean,...how did he pull that off??? LOL!!!!!

marksman
August 16th, 2008, 01:23 AM
Phelps shot his arms into the wall. He would have lost if he hadn't risked the possibility of injured hands. Did Bowman have him practice that too?? It's just unbelievable.

Chris Stevenson
August 16th, 2008, 01:34 AM
(shakes head)

There are sore losers, and there are sore losers.

I don't know...every time I saw the replay in slow motion, especially when they froze the frame at the touch, I could not believe that Cavic wasn't the winner.

I do believe the touchpad, but this is the first time I can remember where my eyes disagreed with the pad. If that had been Phelps in lane 4 than I think there would be a lot of outraged posters on this forum, so I can understand why the Serbians objected.

I thought the shot of Phelps' mother sinking into her chair after the race was absolutely priceless...the guy in front of her seemed struck dumb.

KeithM
August 16th, 2008, 02:33 AM
Good Slo Mo of the finish

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12409893&postcount=10891

Flurpo
August 16th, 2008, 02:51 AM
Great Horny Toads,

The Legend of Michael Phelps...that guy is a magician, and I thought the 400Fr relay was exciting...what next...

geochuck
August 16th, 2008, 08:22 AM
This is the swim as Canadian watched it http://www.cbc.ca/olympics/ondemand/?playlistId=aa4854476408831a50f02cbd88f8e2646b5ffc 7d&videoId=825226357

dorothyrde
August 16th, 2008, 08:48 AM
Good Slo Mo of the finish

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12409893&postcount=10891

That is excellent, it really shows how quick Phelps got around to touch it a fraction before Cavic.

new
August 16th, 2008, 09:22 AM
Phelps is :censor: smart, cavic won´t sleep for a month trying to realize how was that possible...

Charge
August 16th, 2008, 09:27 AM
There's ana amazing underwater photo of the finish on the front page of si.com. Go check it out.

GGS5T
August 16th, 2008, 09:55 AM
Can't get closer...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dySsSyRpLRo&eurl=http://shonzilla.tumblr.com/post/46173044/cavic-vs-phelps-photofinish

3strokes
August 16th, 2008, 10:03 AM
There's an amazing underwater photo of the finish on the front page of si.com. Go check it out.

When you look at it from this underwater, beneath the swimmers and in-between them, angle, you can see that Michael's right-hand touches the wall before Cavic's extended fingers.

Notice the air bubbles under Michael's armpits and around his feet while Cavic seems to be striving for a 10 in Diving (he's just trailing his legs and feet).

I can see why the Serbs might have doubted even the on-site photos.
All the shots that I have seen (NBC and CBC) where from Milorad's left (pointing from lane 3 or 2). From that angle, Cavic's hands seem to touch before Micahel's left hand, whereas the SI.com photo shows Michael's right-hand touching first.

This, now, raises another interesting question: What's the minimum time difference between the actual touch of both hands for a stroke (such as fly or breast) to be considered as "touching together"? This last question is hypothetical of course; the clock stops at the first "real" touch.

smontanaro
August 16th, 2008, 10:19 AM
This is the swim as Canadian watched it http://www.cbc.ca/olympics/ondemand/?playlistId=aa4854476408831a50f02cbd88f8e2646b5ffc 7d&videoId=825226357
Alas, just like NBC, the CBC seems to know I'm not north of the border and won't let me watch it.

Edit: Though they are certainly happy to show me the Bell commercials...

Skip

smontanaro
August 16th, 2008, 10:24 AM
One other thing about that race nobody seems to have pointed out is that Crocker missed out on the bronze by 0.01 as well.

ensignada
August 16th, 2008, 10:40 AM
When you look at it from this underwater, beneath the swimmers and in-between them, angle, you can see that Michael's right-hand touches the wall before Cavic's extended fingers.

From that angle, Cavic's hands seem to touch before Micahel's left hand, whereas the SI.com photo shows Michael's right-hand touching first.

This, now, raises another interesting question: What's the minimum time difference between the actual touch of both hands for a stroke (such as fly or breast) to be considered as "touching together"? This last question is hypothetical of course; the clock stops at the first "real" touch.

I was wondering the same thing, Ahmed. Who knows, maybe most "simultaneous" touches are separated by a split of a split of a second? We just don't see that kind of still photo very often.

Glider
August 16th, 2008, 12:57 PM
Excellent pic from SI. Save it to your PC and open in MS Office Picture Manager or something similar and blow it up to 800%. Pretty conclusive.


I was wondering the same thing, Ahmed. Who knows, maybe most "simultaneous" touches are separated by a split of a split of a second? We just don't see that kind of still photo very often.

cwilson
August 16th, 2008, 01:00 PM
Wow...that's a great video! He wanted it. That finish was awesome!


Good Slo Mo of the finish

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12409893&postcount=10891

cwilson
August 16th, 2008, 01:01 PM
Awesome pic!


Excellent pic from SI. Save it to your PC and open in MS Office Picture Manager or something similar and blow it up to 800%. Pretty conclusive.

justforfun
August 16th, 2008, 01:13 PM
On NBC, at one point they said Mike Bottom was the one who filed the protest on Cavic's behalf. Does anyone know whether that's true?

geochuck
August 16th, 2008, 01:23 PM
I saw the pic - Don't believe anything you hear, and believe
only half of what you see.

Shaman
August 16th, 2008, 01:28 PM
On NBC, at one point they said Mike Bottom was the one who filed the protest on Cavic's behalf. Does anyone know whether that's true?

He didn't. http://www.miloradcavic.com/portal/

Spock
August 16th, 2008, 01:32 PM
Probably so. He coaches Cavic at The Race Club.

swimcat
August 16th, 2008, 01:37 PM
wow, thanks for posting the link. i've met mike bottom and didn't think it sounded like him. he seems like a class act.
nice words from cavic too. what a nailbiter.:D

rtodd
August 16th, 2008, 03:09 PM
Rtodd wrote:


Phelps will smash the WR completely uncontested.

Boy was I wrong. Glad he was able to do it.

LindsayNB
August 16th, 2008, 03:54 PM
I haven't seen very many mentions of the fact that he didn't break the WR with reference to the 7 golds in 7 WRs shtick. Likely he'll get a 7th WR in the medley relay I guess.

I'm still guessing that number of events that he holds WRs in will be what he goes after next, and the 100 fly will be #1 on his list.

Sam Perry
August 16th, 2008, 03:57 PM
I haven't seen very many mentions of the fact that he didn't break the WR with reference to the 7 golds in 7 WRs shtick. Likely he'll get a 7th WR in the medley relay I guess.

I'm still guessing that number of events that he holds WRs in will be what he goes after next, and the 100 fly will be #1 on his list.

Not if I get it first! :rofl:

elise526
August 16th, 2008, 04:00 PM
Not if I get it first! :rofl:

Keep taking those amino acids, Sam, and you may just get it! :weightlifter:

Charge
August 16th, 2008, 04:01 PM
Well, he doesn't have records in the 50, 100, 400, and 1500 frees, the 100Fly, the backstrokes or breaststrokes.

He is insanely close in the backstrokes and 2 tenths form the 100 fl, half a second from the 100 free.

He's taking 6 months off starting tomorrow, but I would be willing to bet the only ones that are truly off-limits wold be the 50, 1500 and the breaststrokes. Out of 16 events, including relays, he reasonably could set records in 12 of them during his career.

justforfun
August 16th, 2008, 05:00 PM
He didn't. http://www.miloradcavic.com/portal/

Thanks for the link. Always interesting to see how the truth differs from the original reports.

phdude
August 16th, 2008, 07:31 PM
not insanely close on the 100bk anymore. peirsol's mark might be around for a little while. i'd actually be surprised if it didn't last at least til london.

M_Tyson
August 16th, 2008, 08:08 PM
As for the question of how much difference there has to be for it not to be considered a tie, the answer is that two finishes may be considered at tie with as much as 0.09999 seconds difference and may be considered not a tie if they differ by as little as 0.00001 seconds. All that matters is on which side of a 0.01 clock tick the two swimmers are. Consider 3 swimmers that touch at 1:00.995000001, 1:01.0049999999, and 1:01.005000001. The first two, separated by almost a full 0.01 would both be given a time of 1:01.00 and would have a tie. The third swimmer who trails the second swimmer by two billionths of a second would be given a time of 1:01.01 and would not tie the second swimmer.

Back in the 1960s, there was a timing device that would mark a spark on a rotating drum that would have shown relative differences finer than 0.01. I believe it was then that the swimming world realized the futility of timing to ever smaller fractions of a second. So the 0.01 second granularity was chosen. But, this results in the kind of unfairness I describe above.

Remember that 0.01 seconds is about 3/4 of an inch at a pace of 50sec/100m.

========

If you think touch pads never lie, and you have access to the first heat of the men's 4x100 Medley Relay (1:02 into the Friday morning broadcast), review the finish of Australia and Japan. The clock claims that Australia won by 0.05, but the underwater video surely looks like Japan touched first, probably by about 0.02 seconds, and did not touch in a frame later than the Australians. If you look at the high def broadcast video, watch for the shadows of the fingers to meet the fingers which indicates whether there is a touch yet. (The SD video doesn't show the shadows as well). I'd love to see the high speed video from above to confirm whether the clock was right or wrong.

craiglll@yahoo.com
August 16th, 2008, 10:16 PM
I was wondering what the smallest amount of time the human eye can see/detect. does anyone know.

3strokes
August 17th, 2008, 10:58 AM
Excellent pic from SI. Save it to your PC and open in MS Office Picture Manager or something similar and blow it up to 800%. Pretty conclusive.

This is the most unbelievable shot of all. Look at the difference ..........

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/0808/oly.phelps.sequence/content.3.html

nyswimmer
August 17th, 2008, 01:28 PM
I was wondering what the smallest amount of time the human eye can see/detect. does anyone know.

I don't know the exact answer, but I believe that ordinary broadcast TV shows about 30 frames per second and I don't think anyone can detect the frames. So the answer is probably more than 1/30 of a second. (By the way, that's another reason not to trust what you think you saw on TV -- regardless of whether your eye can detect 1/100 of a second, TV doesn't show that.)

stillwater
August 17th, 2008, 02:12 PM
Is it time to change the rules? Perhaps a one handed touch for fly?

As for breaststroke, who cares.

Warren
August 17th, 2008, 03:01 PM
Is it time to change the rules? Perhaps a one handed touch for fly?

As for breaststroke, who cares.

No.

Just stick the finish

Blackbeard's Peg
August 17th, 2008, 11:28 PM
It would be interesting if somewhere, the system stored the times to the thousandth of a second (.001). I would be interested to know if Phelps and Cavic were closer (or further) than the .01 the clock indicated.
Imagine Phelps 50.589, Cavic 50.590

Warren
August 18th, 2008, 12:13 AM
It would be interesting if somewhere, the system stored the times to the thousandth of a second (.001). I would be interested to know if Phelps and Cavic were closer (or further) than the .01 the clock indicated.
Imagine Phelps 50.589, Cavic 50.590


I'v heard that they do keep the times to the thousandth but the times are not official or released.

osterber
August 18th, 2008, 10:28 AM
I'm pretty sure the Daktronics timing system makes the 1000th-second data available to the timing operator in a secondary race log output. I don't know what the Omeag system offers. However, it's irrelevant. The rules say we time to 0.01.

We could use high speed replay to look at every single 2-hand touch, and see how far apart your hands were on the touch. Were your hands 0.002 seconds apart on contact? DQ! But we don't do that. That's outside the scope of the rule set.

-Rick

Sam Perry
August 18th, 2008, 10:31 AM
It would be interesting if somewhere, the system stored the times to the thousandth of a second (.001). I would be interested to know if Phelps and Cavic were closer (or further) than the .01 the clock indicated.
Imagine Phelps 50.589, Cavic 50.590


I believe if they were closer it would register as a tie like the 50 free in 2000.

Frank Thompson
August 18th, 2008, 11:57 AM
I believe if they were closer it would register as a tie like the 50 free in 2000.

A race was decided by the two-thousandths of a second in the Men's 400 IM at the 1972 Olympics. Gunnar Larsson of Sweden and Tim McKee of the USA did the exact same time of 4:31.98 and this was the first time that they ever had a tie like this when using electronic timing.

The 1972 Olympics was the first Olympics that electronic timing was used for final decisions and rightly so judging from what happened to Lance Larsen in 1960. In the 400 IM both Gunnar Larsson and Tim McKee tied at 4:31.98 and at that time there were no rules to declare the winner. Because Omega could dismantle the timing device and upon inspection find out who won by the thousandth of a second. That is just what they did and Larsson was declared the winner by two-thousandths of a second.

Later upon analyzing this, it was found that lane lines and touch pads could vary ever so slightly as to not be an accurate measurement. That a faster than a blink of an eye would not be a fair judgement. An international rule change was made for the future. If he were to have swam that 400 IM in an Olympics after 1972, he would have tied for it and awarded a gold medal like Gary Hall Jr/Anthony Erving in 2000 and Nancy Hogshead/Carrie Steinseifer in 1984. After the 1972 Olympics it was decided that awarding races by one thousand of a second was not accurate and wrong to do so in the first place and in the future there would be ties if the time was identical to the one hundredth of a second. Tim McKee is the only one of six people that never received a gold medal in these exact circumstances. He is appealing and petitioning the IOC to be awarded the gold medal. The IOC has yet to overturn this decision.

knelson
August 18th, 2008, 01:04 PM
wow, thanks for posting the link. i've met mike bottom and didn't think it sounded like him. he seems like a class act.

OK, so I'm wondering why filing a protest for your swimmer wouldn't be a class act on an obviously close race such as this? Is the protest what allows the officials to review the high speed camera results? If so, it would be crazy NOT to file a protest. The goal should be to ensure the person who really did touch the wall first is awarded the gold medal regardless of what country that swimmers is swimming for.

swimcat
August 18th, 2008, 02:27 PM
what i should have written is... the media tried to stir up crap, so it made mike sound like a jerk. which he isn't. i'm sure from the swimmers, coaches on the sideline, it did look like cavic touched. it did to me as well, until i saw the film.
the media tried to make it sound as if they were both anti-michael. and pulling at straws. i myself had touch pad issues at a local meet once. (but, i was not the only one. thank goodness for back up timing.