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View Full Version : US Gold in the Medley Relay is a given, right ?



ehoch
August 14th, 2008, 07:35 PM
Lochte may derail Phelps in the IM - but I would not bet on it after the 200 Back.

So then it's up to the 100 Fly, which may be close with Cavic now in the picture - but I saw Phelps going out pretty easy and still almost getting him.

So then the Medley Relay is always a lock for the US - maybe not this time:

Peirsol will probably drop another record or get close.

Hansen will have a lead - but he is not exactly Mr. Confidence right now + Breast and Fly are a little scary swimming from the front.

Phelps in the Fly - not sure about Phelps in a relay. I don't think he has ever had to swim a fast relay leg. But my guess is that he will be fast - he is the man.

Lezak in the Free - maybe the best Free anchor out there

- Japan looks good until the Fly and Freestyle
- I think Russia and Great Britain have a hole in the end. France has no Backstroker
- What about the Aussies ? Maybe 0.5 sec out in the Back, then the Breaststroker as good as Hansen on paper. The Flier just dropped to a 51.2 and then it's Lezak against Sullivan.

Warren
August 14th, 2008, 07:41 PM
Yeah I was punching these numbers this afternoon. Someone may get close but the US won't lose unless they have a total meltdown.

Skaterbaj
August 14th, 2008, 08:08 PM
Ok so WHAT IF(really just what if) phelps looses to crocker, would crocker get the relay spot? I hope Hansen swims well.

Charge
August 14th, 2008, 08:20 PM
It will be much closer to the 400 free than the 800 free was.

We should have a lead after the Backstroke

Here are the best times recorded in the meet thus far. There's a problem with nbcolympics.com and a few of the heats for the 100 back won't show and I couldn't find a frenchbackstroker, so gave them a 54.0 for it. Didn't factor in faster times for the Fly and I didn't use Lezak's relay splits, just to play it safe on the US side, but I think we're 1.5-2.5 seconds faster than this time just based on Phelps/Crocker going 50.0 and Lezak being 46. I did use Bernard's relay split, just used Sullivan's flat start time. Didn't make any allowances for relay starts, unless it was just noted I used flat starts.


Back Breast Fly Free Est Time

USA 52.5 59.6 51.0 47.6 3:30.70

France 54.0 59.4 51.8 46.6 3:31.80

Aussie 53.2 59.7 51.0 47.0 3:30.80

Russia 53.2 59.9 52.0 48.5 3:33.7

Japan 54.0 58.9 51.5 49.8 3:34.1


I think the USA has the most room for improvement based on these times above. We know that Hansen CAN go faster, that Crocker/Phelps WILL go faster and that Lezak HAS gone faster. Otherwise, all those times for other teams are close to topped out except for Sullivan's.

So I say the USA goes 327 high or 328 low. Our main competition, the Aussie's probably go 328 high or 329 low.

I want to see how many countries phelps can beat himself with his IM time.

Also, note that the US FLAT start times I listed are just a couple hundreths above the current world record, so this record should get smashed like the 400 free relay one was, just not by 5 teams

Flurpo
August 15th, 2008, 03:07 AM
I haven't seen this race this tight in my lifetime....The media is treating this like a lock for the US....It is definitely NOT a Lock. This is going to be way close, gut check time. One bad split could easily lose this.

swimminlyn
August 15th, 2008, 11:19 AM
IF Crocker beats Phelps in the 100 Fly will he give up his spot on the finals relay like Phelps did in 2004?

ande
August 15th, 2008, 11:23 AM
YES
I'm sure he'd return Phelps favor from 2004

crocker will have to swim out of his mind to beat phelps


IF Crocker beats Phelps in the 100 Fly will he give up his spot on the finals relay like Phelps did in 2004?

Daaaave
August 15th, 2008, 11:28 AM
Sullivan anchoring should make us all nervous. Lezak will have a lead but Sullivan can draft off the big guy just like Lezak did Bernard. Regardless of the outcome of the mens 50, Sullivan will be hungry for 100 free redemption. Hansen better figure out a way to find his pop.

phdude
August 15th, 2008, 11:34 AM
this brought up a rather interesting question to me. For the sake of this hypothetical, let's completely ignore the issues of taste and plausibility. Of course crocker would never do this. HOWEVER,

Let's say crocker and phelps go 1-2 in the 100fly. phelps with a 50.45 and crocker goes 50.42. So now it is crocker's right to swim finals. However, he did not swim a time that is much faster than phelps' time, so they can be assumed essentially interchangeable in terms of their impact on the outcome of the medley relay. let's also ignore the possibility of phelps swimming the 100fr in the relay. In this case, crocker would have denied phelps the opportunity to break spitz's record. He would also now have the power to allow phelps to tie it, and reap the benefits of 7 gold medals. or he could say "well i swam the fastest 100fly, and it will be a close race, my country needs me to have the best chance of winning the final". he really doesn't have any reasons to give his spot to phelps other than those of a platonic nature. but phelps has a LOT of $$$ reasons to tie spitz. how much would phelps be willing to pay crocker to give him the spot on the relay, if crocker chose to set up his retirement this olympics? Remember, if phelps gets 7, he gets 1 million from speedo. i'm sure he's bathing in endorsement money as it is, but one can only assume that equalling spitz record will result in further fame and fortune. of course it would be terrible for crocker to do, but my main question is, what is the monetary value of the power crocker holds over phelps? In my estimation, crocker could easily ask for upwards of $1 million for his spot on the relay.

not that this would ever happen, in fact i predict a 1/phelps 2/crocker 3/cavic final in the fly. an interesting question though, no?

swimminlyn
August 15th, 2008, 12:24 PM
That is a good question, but I would agree with Ande, Crocker will have to swim out of his mind to beat Phelps. Phelps went 50. in both prelims and semis after having other swims before that. Crocker went 51. in both his races and he has been sitting all week. So if Crocker does pull a win out of his :mooning:, I still think Phelps is the best man for the relay because he would be more rested than he has been.

If Phelps needs to give any monies to any one for getting 8 golds, I think he should share with Lezak for pulling off the 4x100 relay win.


I predict Phelps goes 50.1 tonight.

tjburk
August 15th, 2008, 12:28 PM
Here is the main issue.....Phelps can swim semis and Crocker finals....Phelps gets a Gold - Crocker swims semis and Phelps finals....Phelps gets Gold.

Why worry about it at all....he gets one either way!

LindsayNB
August 15th, 2008, 12:30 PM
Here is the main issue.....Phepls can swim semis and Crocker finals....Phelps gets a Gold - Crocker swims semis and Phelps finals....Phelps gets Gold.

Why worry about it at all....he gets one either way!

There are no semis, Crocker already swam the prelims.

tjburk
August 15th, 2008, 12:39 PM
Sorry....meant prelims

swimminlyn
August 15th, 2008, 12:59 PM
Crocker already swam prelims and whoever swims the fastest tonight swims finals. Which means if Crocker wins, he is on the finals relay and that leave Phelps with 6 gold and whatever he gets in the 100 fly and no opportunity to tie the 7 gold.

tjburk
August 15th, 2008, 01:02 PM
Something tells me that know matter who wins the FL tonight....Phelps will be on the relay somewhere....Just my opinion...

patrick
August 15th, 2008, 01:27 PM
great post hoch
yes I think many of us inthe states take this relay for granted

on the back of a napkin the US looks like a full second ahead of the Aussies

Piersol vs Stoeckel
Aaron is a good half second to 6 tenths faster than Hayden

Hansen vs Rickard
this looking like a push right now though Brenden could benefit from some clean water

Phelps vs Lauterstein
Michael is a full second faster from the feet so if he gets 8 golds he may be the deciding factor

Lezak vs Sullivan
every WR I see Eamon set he gets out and has the clean water--this most likely won't be the case here. Gaines made a good point in the 100 where he struggled off the turn when caught in the wake. If ES can ride Lezak's hip (like he did to Bernard)--this could get a bit dicey in the last 25m.

Edge: US

Flurpo
August 15th, 2008, 01:45 PM
Hey,,

doesn't Phelps still have the AR in the 100Fr (47.51), now wouldn't that be a riot...:agree:

patrick
August 15th, 2008, 01:54 PM
Flurpo: you expecting him to swim both fly and free legs? He gets 9 golds in that case!!

Midas
August 15th, 2008, 01:59 PM
Hey,,

doesn't Phelps still have the AR in the 100Fr (47.51), now wouldn't that be a riot...:agree:

True, but Lezak has the fastest 100 fr split in history (46.06). The edge still goes to Lezak I think. BUT, if Crocker pulls a jerk move, maybe Lezak gives his spot on the relay to Phelps any way? Lezak didn't swim in the prelims so he would be giving up the medal entirely...

Warren
August 15th, 2008, 02:09 PM
True, but Lezak has the fastest 100 fr split in history (46.06). The edge still goes to Lezak I think. BUT, if Crocker pulls a jerk move, maybe Lezak gives his spot on the relay to Phelps any way? Lezak didn't swim in the prelims so he would be giving up the medal entirely...

Guess whos got the fastest fly split in history after having a bad meet?

tjburk
August 15th, 2008, 02:10 PM
I am thinking that this might be a moot point to even discuss....they have probably already talked about this and came up with an agreement.....Crocker swam prelims.....Phelps will swim finals....

Midas
August 15th, 2008, 02:26 PM
I'm with you. I'm guessing the coaches, who I *think* have the ultimate say, are going to go with Phelps no matter what. I really want Phelps to win all 8 golds, but what a story it would be for Crocker to return the favor and give Phelps his spot in the relay.

hofffam
August 15th, 2008, 02:58 PM
It would be "cool" if Crocker cedes his spot to Phelps like what happened in Athens.

But I would prefer even more if there is no controversy at all. I would rather have Phelps earn the spot cleanly. No one will ever have to say "but....but...but...Phelps was given the spot on the relay....."

I think Phelps would prefer that too.

Midas
August 15th, 2008, 03:27 PM
It would be "cool" if Crocker cedes his spot to Phelps like what happened in Athens.

But I would prefer even more if there is no controversy at all. I would rather have Phelps earn the spot cleanly. No one will ever have to say "but....but...but...Phelps was given the spot on the realy....."

I think Phelps would prefer that too.

Yeah, the best possible story is Phelps wins 8 golds and sets 8 world records. I'm rooting for that. If Crocker wins the 100 fly but Phelps swims the relay any way, there will unfortunately always be an asterisk next to Phelps' accomplishment and I *really* don't want that.

patrick
August 15th, 2008, 03:49 PM
My feeling is no matter which American places higher in the 100 fly Phelps will swim the 400 MR final and not for gamesmanship reasons on the part of Crocker if he wins---the reason TV. I think this was decided awhile ago.

On another note Lezak is looking to be very instrumental in Phelps quest for 8 golds. If it's tight with Sullivan off the 350 turn then Michael's (and NBC's) dream falls on Jason.

LindsayNB
August 15th, 2008, 03:53 PM
Is it really better for NBC if he succeeds? Wouldn't it be better for him to fail and try again in 2012?

patrick
August 15th, 2008, 04:01 PM
2012: I bet he will only swim 3 individual races and 2 relays.

100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM
4 x 100 FR, 4 x 100 MR

Charge
August 15th, 2008, 04:12 PM
2012: I bet he will only swim 3 individual races and 2 relays.

100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM
4 x 100 FR, 4 x 100 MR

Without knowing the schedule in London, I'd actually bet he does 200 fly, 200IM and 100Free. (although the 200 Back and 400 free cold be possibilities)

He really has so many options and he has said he wants to try some new events.

jroddin
August 15th, 2008, 05:05 PM
Here is a complete hypothetical situation that can't really happen. But since we are posing "what if's"...

Let's just say that Phelps and Crocker both go blazing fast times in the 100 fly for 1-2. For argument's sake, let's say they even tie. And let's say the coaches go with the notion that Phelps gets the nod for the free leg over Lezak because of his American record (47.51). Obviously this discredits Lezak's anchor the other day - that is why this situation doesn't really work. Anyway, so then you have Phelps anchoring the medley relay: and he goes in and has to hold off or catch Sullivan for his 8th gold! Talk about drama made for TV!

ehoch
August 15th, 2008, 06:42 PM
Edge: US

I see the legs a little different:

US gets that .5 to .6 lead after the Backstroke -- Peirsol is money in these relays.

Breaststroke - don't see any benefit from clean water in this leg, not if you are only behind .5 sec. I do see the benefit in the breaststroke of going in a little behind. If you are in front, you don't see anything, you just go and hope for the best. If you are a little behind on the second 50, you sense the swimmer in front of you on every stroke. + I don't think Hansen has ever delivered a flat start minus 0.7 time in this relay. I think they will be very close to even after this.

Fly - for a full second you would have to put Phelps at 50.2 flat start -- anything is possible - it is Phelps. I think he will be rather careful on the exchange - I am giving him 0.5 sec.

Free - My guess is that Lezak will just play it very cool and he won't panick when Sullivan catches him at the 50.

Please do not quote Rowdy on anything -- 90% of his takes are total bogus.

So - still a small edge to the US.

By the way - if Crocker wins the 100 Fly, he will swim that relay final. He would be faster and more experienced and they don't have the luxury to give spots to each other in a tight race.

ehoch
August 15th, 2008, 06:48 PM
How about the Ladies ?

Can the US take down the Aussie girls -

- Coughlin will give them a lead, question is how much - a few tenth or a full second ?

- then it's Soni, who must just be swimming on pure adrenalin - against Jones. The Aussies should be taking the lead back.

- Schipper against Magnusen -

and they are even after the Fly with Libby Trickett against Dara Torres. My money is on Torres in that one ...

patrick
August 15th, 2008, 06:59 PM
How about the Ladies ?

hoch: I think the US women can beat the Aussie women

Coughlin vs Seebohm
Emily hasn't produced the same times as she did at their trials and Natalie is now sub 59

Soni vs Jones
Rebecca looks good yet over 2 lengths Liesel could challenge

Magnuson vs Schipper
Christine was closing on Jessica in the 100 fly final looks even to me

Torres vs Trickett
with Dara having a 52.44 relay split under her belt I think she has the edge

I think Natalie's back leg is the difference

US by .50+

Actually each really could go down to the touch--what a treat for fans

phdude
August 15th, 2008, 07:06 PM
this is a fairly plausible situation:
ian goes 50.4 to win the fly over michael's 50.9. in this case, the relay is so close that you have to go with ian for fly. i'm pretty sure the coaches would go by flat start times for the free selection, and therefore michael would anchor.

beluga
August 15th, 2008, 10:32 PM
There go the conspiracy theories. Phelps swims the fly leg in the medley finals