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Maui Mike
July 6th, 2009, 11:31 PM
Which event(s) at the World Championships are most likely to produce a new WR?

That Guy
July 7th, 2009, 12:20 AM
men's 100 fly

jim thornton
July 7th, 2009, 12:22 AM
The longer the race, the more chances to break the record, right? Janet Evans nothwithstanding. I'd say the 800 free.

Couroboros
July 7th, 2009, 12:49 AM
I predict a strange visitor will show up for the championships. He will enter in all the events and qualify for every final. He will compete in a hydrodynamic mask so no one can know his identity. His handle will be... Myster Misterious, and he will win every event and set WRs in every single one of them, destroying even the 50 free record by seconds!

And then, before a single reporter will be able to ask him a single question, he will disappear like a thief in the night.

You heard it here first!

KeithM
July 7th, 2009, 01:01 AM
The longer the race, the more chances to break the record, right? Janet Evans nothwithstanding. I'd say the 800 free. Who will break that record? Ziegler hasn't been back in the pool very long. Hoff is a unknown quantity this year and seems to concentrate on mid-distance.

I'm going to gamble and go out on a precarious limb and say Phelps will break Crocker's 100 fly mark. He was eight hundredths off several weeks ago. Something tells me that once tapered he will be able to account for that .08 at Nats.

knelson
July 7th, 2009, 01:29 AM
Who will break that record? Ziegler hasn't been back in the pool very long. Hoff is a unknown quantity this year and seems to concentrate on mid-distance.

I'd say it's very likely every freestyle record will go down on the women's side. Adlington currently owns the WR in the 800 free, so I guess she's the odds-on favorite, but Potec and Jackson will also challenge. It would be nice to see an American in contention, too, but I'm not so sure. The 400 free should also be a great race. Pellegrini, Jackson and Adlington have all been 4:00 this year. I think we'll finally see a woman break four minutes in Rome.

edit: I just noticed something strange. I checked the psych sheet for Nationals and noticed the women aren't swimming the 1500 free. I'm assuming the top two in the 800 also get to swim the 1500 in Rome? Same thing for the men: they only swim the 1500 in Indy despite the fact both the 800 and 1500 are contested at Worlds.

ehoch
July 7th, 2009, 02:22 AM
Based on what's been going on, there will not be a single 2008 record on the books after worlds ...

the question is "which record can survive ? " ......

Maui Mike
July 7th, 2009, 02:52 AM
Based on what's been going on, there will not be a single 2008 record on the books after worlds ...

the question is "which record can survive ? " ......

Men's 400IM seems pretty solid.

Rykno
July 7th, 2009, 06:54 AM
I second the men's 100 fly.

I think we'll even see the breaststroke events get new records.

el desmadre
July 7th, 2009, 11:53 AM
Based on what's been going on, there will not be a single 2008 record on the books after worlds ...

the question is "which record can survive ? " ......

I reckon the men's 1500 is OK for a while longer. Will the 400 free fall this year?

The 100 fly is definitely going down though.

knelson
July 7th, 2009, 12:01 PM
I reckon the men's 1500 is OK for a while longer.

Actually I suspect it will go down. Mellouli just swam a 14:38 last week. The record is 14:34.

KeithM
July 8th, 2009, 08:38 AM
I'd say it's very likely every freestyle record will go down on the women's side. Bah! I didn't read the thead title correctly. I was thinking Maui Mike meant Nationals.

I would not be surprised to see all the free marks broken either.


Based on what's been going on, there will not be a single 2008 record on the books after worlds ...

the question is "which record can survive ? " ...... I'm going to say Liesel Jones's 100 WR will survive. It helps that she isn't going to be there.

That Guy
July 9th, 2009, 06:31 PM
men's 100 fly

:agree:

ehoch
July 10th, 2009, 02:34 AM
I'm going to say Liesel Jones's 100 WR will survive

Not so safe any more ....

mermaid
July 10th, 2009, 05:44 AM
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Four months after deciding to keep swimming, Michael Phelps took ownership of a world record that had eluded him for years.

He won the 100-meter butterfly at the U.S. national championships Thursday night in 50.22 seconds, lowering Ian Crocker's mark of 50.40 set at the 2005 world championships in Montreal.

Michael Phelps hopes his world record in the 100 butterfly lasts much longer than the one he set in the event in 2003 -- one day.

Phelps' feat came just two months after returning from a suspension that was part of the longest layoff of his career, which he considered ending when a photograph of him using a marijuana pipe surfaced.

"It really shows anything can happen if you put your mind to it," Phelps said. "It feels good to get a best time."

Wearing his usual Speedo LZR suit, Phelps led at 50 meters with a split of 23.83, just three-tenths off world-record pace. Known for his strong finishes, the 14-time Olympic gold medalist pulled clear down the stretch to beat Tyler McGill, who touched in 51.06. Aaron Peirsol was third in 51.30.

"Crock had a ton more first 50 speed than I did. That's something I've really been working on," Phelps said. "I've always been able to come home pretty strong. I finally got the front half a little bit faster. If I can get that even faster, I'll be in better shape."

Phelps currently holds individual world records in the 100 and 200 flys, 200 and 400 individual medleys, and the 200 free.

"They've all been absolutely incredible," he said.

Phelps had owned the 100 fly mark for a day at the 2003 world meet in Barcelona. But Crocker took it from him a day later, then lowered it twice more, something that has bugged Phelps ever since.

"To finally be able to get it tonight means a lot," he said.

Phelps was in the 100 fly final when Crocker broke the record in Montreal.

"That is the worst Michael has ever gotten beat," his coach Bob Bowman said.

Last month, Phelps came close to claiming the mark when he won the event at a meet in Montreal with a then-personal-best of 50.48.

"Crock actually texted me after and wished me all the luck and telling me that was my record," he said. "That meant a lot, from a competitor and a friend and a classy guy. We had amazing battles back and forth. Those are something I definitely miss."

Crocker hasn't swum competitively since losing the 100 fly to Phelps at the Bejing Olympics, where Phelps won a record eight gold medals.

Phelps' victory gave him a spot in the event at the world championships later this month in Rome. He already qualified in the 200 fly and 200 freestyle as he continues his transformation from swimming middle distances to sprints.

"We've been trying to get his stroke a little flatter and with maybe a slightly higher tempo," Bowman said. "He sensed he was in condition to break the record."

His success comes after a rocky post-Olympic period in which the 24-year-old superstar took a six-month break, gained 20 pounds, and the marijuana pipe photo surfaced, resulting in a three-month suspension by USA Swimming. That ended in early May and then Phelps lost some races while preparing for nationals.

"I wasn't sure he would break any records this year," Bowman said.

Dara Torres is also going to Rome, having won the 50 free at age 42 despite an ailing left knee that has a torn tendon and arthritis. She plans to have surgery later this summer.

Wearing a Jaked suit, Torres clocked 24.43, well off her American record of 24.07 set at the Beijing Olympics, where she won three silver medals as a hero to weekend warriors everywhere. It will be her first appearance at world championships since 1986.

"It's a great feeling to be able to come out here and still race, but that time won't medal at the world championships," she said. "I guess I really don't think about the age thing until I get out of the pool and I'm limping with my knee."

She beat a field of women who weren't yet born when Torres competed in the first of five Olympics in 1984. Olympian Amanda Weir took the second spot in 24.70.

"The adrenaline kind of comes, so you don't really think about it once you get off the blocks," she said about her knee. "Obviously, it had an impact on my start because I was so slow."

Olympian Nathan Adrian won the men's 50 in 21.52, but he wasn't the fastest man in the pool.

Cesar Cielo of Brazil clocked 21.14 to win the 'B' final, where he and Fred Bousquet of France were relegated because only Americans are allowed in the 'A' final. Bousquet, the world recordholder, finished second in 21.36. Their times the fastest ever on American soil would have put them 1-2 in the event.

Olympic teammates Cullen Jones, who qualified fastest, and Garrett Weber-Gale tied for second in 21.55 in the 'A' final, setting up a swim-off on Saturday.

Elizabeth Beisel qualified for her first world championships at 16 with a victory in the 400 individual medley. She finished in 4:36.31 and Julia Smit, already on the U.S. team, was second.

Dagny Knutson, a promising 17-year-old from North Dakota, came up short with a third-place finish. She has one more chance at making the world championships in the 100 free.

Rebecca Soni, the Olympic silver medalist, won the 100 breaststroke in an American-record time of 1:05.34. She erased the mark of 1:06.20 set by Jessica Hardy at the 2005 world championships.

KeithM
July 11th, 2009, 08:41 AM
Not so safe any more .... Well then there truly is no safe record this year. Breast has been especially ridiculous lately. I would not be surprised to Liesel make a run at regaining any records she loses at meets later this year before the clamp down. She's still in shape based on her Santa Clara times. I wonder if some of the unsponsored US swimmers wearing Speedo that made the team will make a switch for Rome (e.g. Hersey).

Syd
July 11th, 2009, 09:36 AM
Lochte is hovering over Phelps's 200 IM record - only 33 hundredths of a second away and probably not fully tapered. That certainly could be one to watch out for.

rtodd
July 11th, 2009, 10:18 AM
Men's 400 free I think is safe.

KeithM
July 11th, 2009, 01:50 PM
Men's 400 free I think is safe. Not that safe. Park is creeping closer. The Chinese swimmer (Zhang?) has been impressive this year too.

rtodd
July 12th, 2009, 12:21 PM
Park is less than 2 seconds off, so I guess he is close.