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Swimosaur
August 21st, 2014, 08:49 PM
Here are the motivational times for 2015.

8950

9615

9909 << SCM (fixed)

---------------------------

Motivational times (MTs) are calculated from the base time given in Column X. The algorithm for calculating the base time is similar, but not identical to, the method USMS uses to calculate national qualifying times (NQTs) for the annual SCY national championships.

Most of the time, Column X is
(A) the average of the previous three year’s 10th place times.

However, if there are fewer than three 10th place times over the previous three years, we use, in order,
(B) average of two 10th place times over the previous three years. If there are fewer than two 10th place times,
(C) average of three 5th place times + 4.45%. If there are fewer than three,
(D) average of two 5th place times + 4.45%. If there are fewer than two,
(E) No Time (NT).

If one of the alternatives B-D is used, it’s indicated by a superscript.

The rest of the columns are proportional to Column X as follows,




AAAA = X + 5%


A = X + 20%




AAA = X + 10%


BB = X + 30%




AA = X + 15%


B = X + 40%



For MTs, the same algorithm is used for all three courses, SCY, LCM, and SCM.

Relationship to NQTs. For SCY, as long as Column X is calculated using method A, B, or E, Columns AA and AAA should be, but are not guaranteed to be, exactly the NQTs for sprints and 200+ events respectively. However, there will be some small differences for methods C and D. For LCM, the MTs should be different from the NQTs in all cases. USMS does not publish NQTs for SCM or for age groups 85+.

Column X. I like to think of Column X as “the moral equivalent of a Top Ten time”. Of course, in any given year, the 10th place time will be faster or slower by some amount than the average of the three previous years, so of course, Column X is not an actual Top Ten time. Too bad, huh? You can also think of it as “the time I need to hit to have about a 50/50 chance.”

ElaineK
August 21st, 2014, 09:27 PM
Wow, Swimosaur, you're on it! Way to go- and, thank you!!! :applaud:

tpost2
August 23rd, 2014, 07:04 AM
You're awesome - thanks!!!

mmlr38
August 23rd, 2014, 11:02 AM
Awesome! Thanks so much for your work on this!

ElaineK
August 24th, 2014, 09:48 AM
8955 :cheerleader: :applaud: :chug:

Swimosaur
August 24th, 2014, 11:01 AM
8955 :cheerleader: :applaud: :chug:

:joker::lmao::notworthy:

TRYM_Swimmer
August 26th, 2014, 11:14 AM
Great stuff! Thanks a bunch!

Swimosaur
January 1st, 2015, 07:27 PM
Here are the SCY motivational times for 2015.

8950



Seems like a good day to bump this thread :)

:bump:

ElaineK
January 1st, 2015, 09:48 PM
Seems like a good day to bump this thread :)

:bump:

Happy New Year, Swimosaur! :party2:

mermaid
January 2nd, 2015, 06:45 PM
I like it a lot!

Well done!:applaud:

ande
January 8th, 2015, 01:24 PM
that's a lot of work

Swimosaur
February 2nd, 2015, 07:50 PM
that's a lot of work

Why, yes. Yes, it was.

My notes say it took almost six weeks to write the script, but that includes the nights & weekends when I couldn't stand to look at it any more. The worst part, as always, was getting the .rtf codes right. What a nightmare.

But now that it's done, it runs in a few seconds, and it's no work at all. I figure it'll be best to post the MTs at the "beginning" of each season: Jan for SCY, May for LCM, and Sep for SCM.

Was that a gratuitous bump? Why yes. Yes, it was.

__steve__
February 2nd, 2015, 08:15 PM
Thank You Judd

You're the man!:agree:

I have a question, is it the posted time and faster for each? For example a 47 yr old male swims 50 free at 29.42, what grade is that?

Swimosaur
February 2nd, 2015, 09:10 PM
... is it the posted time and faster for each? For example a 47 yr old male swims 50 free at 29.42, what grade is that?

I would say yes. Yes, it is.

For M 45-49, the "BB" time is 29.43, so a time of 29.42 is "BB". To get to "A", the swimmer would have to do 27.16 or better.

secondheart
February 2nd, 2015, 09:59 PM
Curious - In getting your data for the 10th place time does your script directly access the USMS database (i.e. select statements)? (I was a programmer in my previous life ) (javascript:void(0)) A very complex script :applaud: (javascript:void(0))

Swimosaur
February 2nd, 2015, 11:19 PM
Curious - In getting your data for the 10th place time does your script directly access the USMS database (i.e. select statements)? (I was a programmer in my previous life ) (http://javascript<strong></strong>:void(0)) A very complex script :applaud: (http://javascript<strong></strong>:void(0))


It fetches pages with addresses of the form,

"http://www.usms.org/comp/tt/toptenlist.php?CourseID="+CourseID + "&Year="+yy + "&Sex="+Sex + "&AgeGroupID="+AG;

and then parses the HTML to get the times.

As for complexity, it's not too bad. About 700 lines, including comments. It's written in javascript.

Swimosaur
May 2nd, 2015, 01:16 PM
LCM!

9615

ElaineK
May 2nd, 2015, 04:15 PM
LCM!

9615

Thanks, Swimosaur! :applaud: I was just thinking of you a few minutes ago when I looked up my Senior Games race times from today's meet on your 2015 SCY chart. It was my first meet back since hip surgery, and it looks like I have a long way still to go to crawl back up the chart.

On a side note, you are planning on Greensboro next April, right? :banana:

Swimosaur
May 2nd, 2015, 11:19 PM
On a side note, you are planning on Greensboro next April, right? :banana:

Absolutely!

mmlr38
May 3rd, 2015, 10:33 AM
Thanks so much for spending the time to do this. I think it's a great resource for the community!

Swimosaur
September 2nd, 2015, 11:30 AM
SCM. For some reason, the script horked on the 70+ age groups. I may or may not be able to get back to that soon.

Update 1:20 PM ... fixed.

__steve__
September 2nd, 2015, 04:35 PM
I like how it's based on percentage and not place, since some events have over 500 swims in a season where for instance a top 50 time = to a top 10 % swim or a AAA motivational time

ElaineK
September 2nd, 2015, 05:56 PM
SCM. For some reason, the script horked on the 70+ age groups. I may or may not be able to get back to that soon.

Update 1:20 PM ... fixed.

:applaud: ​Great job as always. THANKS!

ristad
November 20th, 2015, 12:26 PM
Judd - Thank you for posting these times! Do you have the information available in a spreadsheet?

Swimosaur
November 26th, 2015, 11:33 AM
Judd - Thank you for posting these times! Do you have the information available in a spreadsheet?

It was easy to change the script to output a .csv file. Sneak peak! Here are the 2016 SCY Motivational Times in a spreadsheet.

ElaineK
November 26th, 2015, 04:55 PM
It was easy to change the script to output a .csv file. Sneak peak! Here are the 2016 SCY Motivational Times in a spreadsheet.

Thanks for this, Swimosaur! Although it's a bit disheartening to see that I am not even back on the chart for most events (I was a AAA in my best event before my injuries, and in the A's and BB for just about everything else), I am just very thankful today (and everyday) to be back in the pool! :agree:

Happy Thanksgiving!
:turkey:

Swimosaur
November 28th, 2015, 12:50 PM
It was easy to change the script to output a .csv file ...

But it was hard to resist the urge to play with it. Recall, in the Motivational Times, Column X is the average of the 10th place time over the previous three years; all other columns are just scaled copies of it. So we might as well just play with Column X.

The first graph is a (somwhat edited) version of what you get if you just graph Column X. I threw out the longer events and the IM's, so the horizontal axis represents 50s, 100s, and 200s of each stroke. The vertical axis is time in seconds. If you look closely, you can see the variations due to age and sex. The thing that impressed me most about this graph was how similar the shape of the curve is, over age groups, regardless of distance, stroke, or sex.

http://forums.usms.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=10040&d=1448731955

So in the second graph, I first divided the times for the 100s by 2, and the 200s by 4, to get the average time per 50, regardless of distance. Then I summed the times for each age group, regardless of stroke or distance, giving a total time for men & women by age group. The curves are almost parallel, but not quite.

http://forums.usms.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=10041&d=1448731955

For the third graph, I combined men & women, and normalized the overall time so that AG 18-24 = 100; all higher AGs can be interpreted as some percentage slower. What I find remarkable is how slowly performance deteriorates -- 10th place times even in the 50-54 age group are within 10% of the times in 18-24! Another impressive feature is how lawful the curve looks (yes, there's a lot of averaging going on).

http://forums.usms.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=10042&d=1448731955

So I invented a little holiday game for myself, called, "Are you ahead of the game?" The way this game is played, you pick some time in some event you did at a younger age, and then multiply by the appropriate factors to predict your time at your current age. If you're faster than predicted, you're ahead of the game! What fun!

For example, I did a 1:48 in the 200 free as an 18 year old senior in high school in 1976. 1:48 = 108 seconds. I did a 2:03 at Senior Games Nationals as a 55 year old in 2013. 2:03 = 123 seconds. Am I ahead of the game, or not?

Younger Time in sec * ( Older Factor / Younger Factor ) = Predicted Older Time in sec

108 * ( 114.81 / 100.00 ) = 123.99 >> 2:03.99 ... I am ever so slightly ahead of the game!

The factors are,



AG

Factor


18-24

100.00


25-29

100.81


30-34

102.88


35-39

104.38


40-44

105.49


45-49

107.05


50-54

109.49


55-59

114.81


60-64

123.22


65-69

135.87


70-74

156.47


75-79

190.36


80-84

214.17

m2tall2
November 29th, 2015, 07:59 AM
This is very cool! I'm way behind the curve but with so many swim-less years, that doesn't suprise me.
I do wonder, however, if the sample size is too small in the 18-24 age group to adequately predict the drop off if you were an age group or college swimmer. Just generally browsing the chart, it looks like my actual 18-24 times would put me typically in the X or AAAA group. In the world of USA swimming, though, I know my times at that time, were mostly AA, a couple AAA and two consistent AAAA. Meaning, if more swimmers participated in masters in that age group, I bet the drop off percentages would be steeper. By the time the 30s-40s come around more ex-swimmers get back in the groove and there are more swimmers in general so masters times start looking faster again. Especially in the less contested events like the 400 IM.
For example, at 35, my fastest event is currently at 16% decline after 8 months. I expect to get back into the 5.5% range within a year or two. In the first month I jumped back in the pool, we were talking 58% decline over 18yo times.
My less favorable events are actually closer to a 21% decline and I expect to get back to the 12% range in a year or two.
I, however, have generally not stayed in good active shape. I had a spell of swimming in my late 20's but I was not consistent enough to really make a fitness dent. A guy on my team has stayed in great shape with other sports through the years and within 3 months back in the pool seems to be hitting within close to (within 1-3 seconds) his 18 year old times. He's in the 45-50 age group.

Swimosaur
November 29th, 2015, 01:24 PM
... if more swimmers participated in masters in that age group, I bet the drop off percentages would be steeper.

If more fast swimmers participated in every age group, all the times would be faster. I know guys from my HS swim team, now in their 50s, who could post a Top Ten time every splash. But they don't compete. One HS guy, now in his 40s, swam SCY nats in 2012 & won all the fly events. Then back to the shadows. I think there are a lot of fast people out there, in every age group, who don't compete.

But I don't think it matters. This method arbitrarily picks the 10th place time nationally among swimmers who do compete. These are pretty healthy people. But you could pick 15th or 30th, or almost any other number, and probably get almost the same curves. (Numbers #1 & #2 probably wouldn't work, because the freak-of-nature factor would put them off the curve.)

That said, there are plenty of problems. Two are, (1) We're comparing times across many decades, and the younger age groups have presumably been exposed to more modern training methods and presumably better coaching. So is this really an apples-to-apples comparison? (2) The curves for men & women diverge in higher age groups, so they really shouldn't be combined. Hey, it's a game! :)

Allen Stark
November 30th, 2015, 06:43 PM
That graph is wonderful.It makes me feel a little better about my recent times, but at 66,nearly 67 I can tell you it is frustrating to be in the steeper part of the curve.

Swimosaur
November 30th, 2015, 09:21 PM
Allen, you will always be ahead of the game! :)

smiley92407
December 1st, 2015, 12:56 AM
I haven't been in a meet since 1981 and I only started swimming again back in August. I guess I need to enter a meet to see where I am. That will be taken care of in January. On most of my sets during workouts, I fall anywhere from an BB to C, which is a whole lot better back in August. My wife is from Greensboro, North Carolina and that motivates me, and now I have this chart that you produced to give me an idea where I am.

I will have a better idea in January.

Allen Stark
December 1st, 2015, 09:49 AM
Allen, you will always be ahead of the game! :)

I feel like the game is catching up.

m2tall2
December 2nd, 2015, 02:06 PM
By the way, I can't tell you how much I love these charts. I converted the SCY one to an excel spreadsheet back this Spring and I've been slowly marking off the ones I hit, making my way back up the chart after too many years not swimming. Green ones I've made, yellow I feel I'm really, really close. Finally got to mark off that 100 IM today. That one has been eluding me for weeks at a 1:31-1:33. Finally. :)
10049

Swimosaur
December 6th, 2015, 10:48 PM
By the way, I can't tell you how much I love these charts. I converted the SCY one to an excel spreadsheet ...

Thanks! I'm glad you like them!

I'll revise the script, beginning next year, to output .csv in addition to .pdf, so you & others will have something spreadsheet-like to start with.

no200fly
January 14th, 2017, 03:08 PM
These are great, thanks.

Have you ever compared the slope of the X times over time? I assume that the slope will decrease in older age groups over the years as the number of competing swimmers increases?

orca1946
January 14th, 2017, 06:23 PM
As I suspected --- I'm behind the curve and it IS getting steeper as I approach 71 !!!

Swimosaur
January 14th, 2017, 07:02 PM
Have you ever compared the slope of the X times over time? I assume that the slope will decrease in older age groups over the years as the number of competing swimmers increases?

I haven't done that particular calculation, but, for various reasons, I'd be surprised if that were the case.

The program is a little less than 800 lines of javascript, and should run on pretty much any internet-connected Windows PC sold this century. If anyone wants to play with it, I'm happy to share. :)

Richard Garza
March 5th, 2018, 04:26 PM
I haven't done that particular calculation, but, for various reasons, I'd be surprised if that were the case.

The program is a little less than 800 lines of javascript, and should run on pretty much any internet-connected Windows PC sold this century. If anyone wants to play with it, I'm happy to share. :)

Hey there Swimosaur, I am interested in playing with the Javascript, is that offer still on the table?

mmlr38
March 6th, 2018, 12:56 PM
Hey there Swimosaur, I am interested in playing with the Javascript, is that offer still on the table?
I'd too like to take a peek at it!

Swimosaur
March 7th, 2018, 01:41 PM
Hey there Swimosaur, I am interested in playing with the Javascript, is that offer still on the table?

Sure, no problem. Send an email to "MyUSMSForumHandle@gmail.com", and I'll send the script.

Note, it will only run on Windows.

Coach Michi
January 13th, 2019, 05:34 AM
This Masters Motivational Times is fantastic!! It is a great way to motivate my Masters Swimmers to participate in the Pentathlon ePostal event. Currently, they look at the youth times and find that they swim about as fast as their 10-year old. That's discouraging. This will be much more helpful.

Any chance you've already done the math to make one for SCM? We swim most workouts in a 25-m pool. I can make the conversion but if you've already done it, that would be great to have.
Thanks!
Coach Michi