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Peter Cruise
April 9th, 2004, 02:53 PM
In the spirit of calmer, more reasoned discourse- I hope to start a swimming-related one that nevertheless could get our juices flowing. Namely, let's get out on a real limb (before U.S. trials) & fearlessly predict results of Olympic events. You may choose as many or few to predict as you wish- and in a few months some of us may look very swimming-wise or perhaps foolish.
I will wade into it with the event that has been thrown open by Ian Thorpes poor sense of balance, the mens 400m free:
The winner is Perkins of Australia in close to world-record time.
Supplementary prediction: there will be no American on that podium.

knelson
April 9th, 2004, 04:52 PM
Originally posted by Peter Cruise
I will wade into it with the event that has been thrown open by Ian Thorpes poor sense of balance, the mens 400m free:
The winner is Perkins of Australia in close to world-record time.
Supplementary prediction: there will be no American on that podium.

Maybe you meant Hackett?

mark_varney47
April 9th, 2004, 05:15 PM
Well as it goes the I will predict that the winners are;
200m Free Thorpe
1500m Free Hackett.
Not very adventurous or radical with my predictions.

Mark:D

Peter Cruise
April 9th, 2004, 05:28 PM
Kirk- you've got me in my senility- yes Hackett is what I meant

breastroker
April 10th, 2004, 12:06 AM
What no prediction for Gibson? I think he will be in the top 3 in the 100 breast, maybe even win:D

Peter Cruise
April 10th, 2004, 01:30 AM
I will go very far out on a limb...Jenny Thompson to win the 50m freestyle- I don't think Athens will be about raw speed necessarily, especially since they left the roof off the pool, but experience and wouldn't it be glorious if she won?

nyswim
April 12th, 2004, 07:17 AM
I have a feeling this olympics is going to be a disaster, not just for swimmers.

mattson
April 12th, 2004, 10:12 AM
Originally posted by nyswim
I have a feeling this olympics is going to be a disaster, not just for swimmers.

Are you predicting something outrageous (like 87F water temp, and the pool measuring 49.99 meters long), or just that the swimming conditions won't measure up to past Olympics?

How about this for an over-the-top prediction: no world records. (I will be happy to be wrong.)

Dennis Tesch
April 12th, 2004, 10:19 AM
I will agree with nyswim..... I have a bad feeling about this Olympics. I don't want to get into the terrorism side of this. If it is any indication of the number of problems they have had getting facilities done, how well can they manage the events? I hope the best for Athens.......but I won't be surprised by much.

knelson
April 12th, 2004, 10:55 AM
I predict Michael Phelps will NOT win every individual event he's entered in. There are just too many other talented swimmers out there. Add that to the number of splashes he'll have to make with prelims, semi, finals and relays and it seems like something's got to give.

Tom Ellison
April 12th, 2004, 11:38 PM
I do not think ANYONE IN MY LIFETIME will EVER, EVER, EVER bust Spitz's 7 Golds in the same Olympic Games....it's not going to happen....TRUST ME!

And, if it does...I'll eat crow....Just do not get to keen on going out to buy the BB's....... because you are not going to have to shoot the crow for me to eat in our lifetime........aint going to happen....never, ever....And never, ever is a really long time....Heck, that is even older then my ex-mother in law.....

Mark in MD
April 13th, 2004, 08:57 AM
If Spitz' record is broken, consideration should be given as to where and how Ellison will be eating crow. Will it be at 2005 SCY Nationals and would he have it baked, stuffed, broiled, BBQ'd or fried? There's an abundant supply of them in my back yard. They never seem to miss my car either. :p

Scansy
April 13th, 2004, 09:49 AM
Originally posted by Mark in MD
... would he have it baked, stuffed, broiled, BBQ'd or fried? ...

How about fresh - kinda like sushi - feathers and all!

lefty
April 13th, 2004, 11:28 AM
Originally posted by Tom Ellison
I do not think ANYONE IN MY LIFETIME will EVER, EVER, EVER bust Spitz's 7 Golds in the same Olympic Games....it's not going to happen....TRUST ME!

And, if it does...I'll eat crow....Just do not get to keen on going out to buy the BB's....... because you are not going to have to shoot the crow for me to eat in our lifetime........aint going to happen....never, ever....And never, ever is a really long time....Heck, that is even older then my ex-mother in law.....

Does this include women? Coughlin **would have** done it if the Olympics were 2 summers ago.

lefty
April 13th, 2004, 11:50 AM
:::Perhaps we should move this discussion onto the Olympic predictions thread. I don't necessarily disagree with Lefty's prediction of US victory in the 400 free relay but merely wanted to point out the race will be CLOSE. Neil Walker has not improved his time in several years and while Jason Lezak did become a better sprinter post-Olympics neither swimmer is a sure thing to get that much better in the Olympic. Gary Hall has been out of serious training for quite some time and really has never done better than Kapralov with flat start. I think it extremely unlikely that Hall will swim faster in 2004 than 2000, even though he is an incredible talent. So where are the up and coming US sprinters beyond Crocker (who is still not the most consistent free sprinter LCM) and Phelps (granted is improving and is the X factor for the US). I see a VERY tight race in the 400 free unlike the Medley where the US should be able to win with some significant margin.

I copied and pasted and don't know the key strokes to do the quote thing correctly. The above was posted in "the fastest masters club ever" page for reference.In the past 12 months both Walker and Lezak have split sub 48. Walker at Dual in the Pool, Lezak multiple times. Hall is definitely training seriously, I am not sure where you got that info but it is inaccurate. Crocker hasn't been inconsistent; he just wasn't that good until last summer! But He and Phelps are still wildcards in the 100 free though so I won't count those chickens just yet. If both slip there is still Tucker. One point we agree on: The 400 free will be closer than the 400 medley. I highly doubt a world All-star team would be favored against the US.

In terms of upsets, (fearless predictions) I will stick with what I wrote before, the US will win the 800 free relay, and Crocker will win the 100 Free. Jenny T could win the 50, but not because of the logic presented here. Every swimmer in the final will be able to cope with conditions: they are all seasoned pros, even if some are only 18!

(If you watch college basketball, you will occasionally hear an announcer saying "that was a brilliant basketball play by the upper-classman." The next year in the NBA, the same player is accused of making "rookie mistakes." What, did the guy get dumber?) (Another beef, since we (me) are on them: Announcers who confuse notoriety with fame. Dick Enberg does this ALL the time.)

Conniekat8
April 13th, 2004, 03:14 PM
Originally posted by Mark in MD
If Spitz' record is broken, consideration should be given as to where and how Ellison will be eating crow. Will it be at 2005 SCY Nationals and would he have it baked, stuffed, broiled, BBQ'd or fried? There's an abundant supply of them in my back yard. They never seem to miss my car either. :p

Maybe some dip and a few Cow Chips?
http://www.roadsideamerica.com/attract/OKBEAchip.html

or if he's nice, we'll let hiom have this version:
http://www.stc-dfw.org/newsletter/02SS/627.htm

Mark in MD
April 13th, 2004, 10:08 PM
Liked that recipe, Connie. Perhaps we should consider baking some and send them to Tom.

Scansy
April 13th, 2004, 10:21 PM
Originally posted by Mark in MD
Liked that recipe, Connie. Perhaps we should consider baking some and send them to Tom.

Maybe add a "special ingredient"?

tjburk
April 14th, 2004, 08:39 AM
I am going out on a limb and saying that Phelps will do it!:p If anyone can, it is him! Incredible talent! I just hope the facility is done and that there are no problems with security! GO USA:D

seltzer
April 14th, 2004, 09:12 AM
Note: Ervin's retirement notice on swiminfo.


"Unexpected" predictions:

1) Phelp's loses 100 fly and 200 fly. These defeats will spur him on to beat Spitz's 7 golds by adding the 100/200 free to his list of events in 2008.
2) Phelp beats Peirsol in the 200 back and also gets gold in the 200/400 IM. His margin of victory in the IM will be "Spitz"-like and the comparisons/debate will continue until 2008.
3) Someone other than Moses or Kitjima wins the 100 breast
4) Hansen wins the 200 breast
5) Coughlin wins "only" 1 individual gold medal
6) US Men win all three relays for the first time in a long time thanks in large part to Mr. Phelps and Mr. Crocker

Peter Cruise
April 14th, 2004, 03:31 PM
Crocker wins 100m fly. Jenny Thompson's win in 50m free comes from her talent, dedication and her race experience. I think the Athens scene will be hot & chaotic (hopefully not terrorized) & it will take more than a racer's routine poise to be a champion at these Games.

mark_varney47
April 15th, 2004, 02:36 AM
Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.How about Great Britain?How many gold medals?I say three.

Mark

seltzer
April 15th, 2004, 09:01 AM
Originally posted by mark_varney47
Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.How about Great Britain?How many gold medals?I say three.

Mark

OK.

Name them.

SWinkleblech
April 15th, 2004, 09:18 AM
Originally posted by mark_varney47
Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.How about Great Britain?How many gold medals?I say three.

Mark

We can't help it if the US is the best!!!!:D

mattson
April 15th, 2004, 10:12 AM
Originally posted by mark_varney47
Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.

I'm shocked and appalled to find a pro-USA sentiment on a USMS discussion board. ;)

swimr4life
April 15th, 2004, 11:10 AM
U S A! U S A! U S A! U S A! :p

tjburk
April 15th, 2004, 02:28 PM
Don't let the door hit you in the #$% on the way out! If'n y'all don't like it!!!:D

We are kind of stuck up ain't we? Guess that's what happens when you're the best;) :D ;) :D

I'm synchronizing with Beth...

U S A! U S A! U S A! U S A!:p

lefty
April 15th, 2004, 02:35 PM
It is true that the US is tops in swimming. Why? (AND) There are so many other sports to play herewhere you can earn a living, the best US athletes have NO desire to be swimmers. I can't come up with a reasonable answer. Priviliged US children learn to swim earlier?

mark_varney47
April 16th, 2004, 02:22 AM
Just out of pure interest,how would Olympic medals tables look if they were adjusted for the size of the countries that won medals.For example,if a country with 1/2 the population of USA won 6 golds and USA won 10 golds then the smaller country winning 6 golds would appear higher in the table.:cool:

tjburk
April 16th, 2004, 09:15 AM
Mark, were those 6 Golds one by Late Bloomers? Early, Late, Mid Bloomers? Or just some people using VO2 Max Shampoo?:D

Rob Copeland
April 16th, 2004, 04:18 PM
Mark

On a population based scale, ignoring the late bloomer factor,
The Bahamas rules with 6.7 Olympic medals per million people(1 gold, 1 silver, 297,00 people), followed by Barbados 3.6 MpM, Iceland 3.5 MpM and Australia with 2.9 MpM.

Britain (0.46) and the USA (0.34) are in the middle of the pack and India comes in last with 1 bronze for 1 Billion+ people.

Peter Cruise
April 16th, 2004, 07:55 PM
Oh my goodness, on another thread we debate the Thorpe Saga, will he or won't he, should he or shouldn't he...but what about my prediction in the 400m free? I'm out on this long limb...should I withdraw it on a technicality if Thorpe swims or be brave, be bold, be very un-Canadian and YES! I will stick with it, Hackett will win whether or not Thorpedo launches himself into the event despite the withering scorn being directed his way.
Of course, I could be wrong....

mattson
April 17th, 2004, 12:26 AM
Originally posted by Rob Copeland
The Bahamas rules with 6.7 Olympic medals per million people(1 gold, 1 silver, 297,00 people), followed by Barbados 3.6 MpM, Iceland 3.5 MpM and Australia with 2.9 MpM.

I didn't realize that Iceland was such the swimming power. Maybe we need to check if they are doping their swimmers. ;)

Pull-buoy
April 18th, 2004, 01:24 PM
Originally posted by seltzer
Note: Ervin's retirement notice on swiminfo.


"Unexpected" predictions:

1) Phelp's loses 100 fly and 200 fly. These defeats will spur him on to beat Spitz's 7 golds by adding the 100/200 free to his list of events in 2008.
2) Phelp beats Peirsol in the 200 back and also gets gold in the 200/400 IM. His margin of victory in the IM will be "Spitz"-like and the comparisons/debate will continue until 2008.
3) Someone other than Moses or Kitjima wins the 100 breast
4) Hansen wins the 200 breast
5) Coughlin wins "only" 1 individual gold medal
6) US Men win all three relays for the first time in a long time thanks in large part to Mr. Phelps and Mr. Crocker

Let me say, above all, I do apologize for my English: I'm from Italy;)

As regards the quote, I disagree in a few points:
in my opinion Phelps is gonna win 200fly, Hansen will not win 200 breast
Which medal for Coughlin: she really has to be in a good shape: at the Olympics there's not a second chance as it happens at Australian trials ;)
4x200 free relay gold is for Australia cause its team is too strong

KenChertoff
April 18th, 2004, 02:04 PM
Originally posted by nyswim
I have a feeling this olympics is going to be a disaster, not just for swimmers.

I've just joined this thread, but I agree with nyswm. Right now, I'm not even willing to predict there will be water in the pool. :(

justforfun
April 21st, 2004, 11:12 AM
How about this question: Which events will Phelps swim at U.S. trials?

I'm thinking:
100 free, 200 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 back

The 100/200 frees are just to qualify for relays...he won't swim them in Athens. Probably the toughest for him to make the U.S. team is 200 back (Perisol and Krazelburg). If he does it, that would leave 5 individual events at the Olympics that he has a legitimate shot to win. Given the heats/semis/finals format, If he is even able to medal in all 5, he's an incredible iron man.

swimmer
April 21st, 2004, 02:01 PM
Originally posted by justforfun
How about this question: Which events will Phelps swim at U.S. trials?

I'm thinking:
100 free, 200 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 back

The 100/200 frees are just to qualify for relays...he won't swim them in Athens. Probably the toughest for him to make the U.S. team is 200 back (Perisol and Krazelburg). If he does it, that would leave 5 individual events at the Olympics that he has a legitimate shot to win. Given the heats/semis/finals format, If he is even able to medal in all 5, he's an incredible iron man.

Krazelburg isn't going to swim the 200 back and even if he did, Phelps has passed him by. I don't think he has to swim the 100 and 200 free to get on the relays. I could be wrong about that.

justforfun
April 21st, 2004, 06:21 PM
I'd be very surprised if he didn't have to swim the 100/200 free events at trials (and place in the top 6) to qualify for the free relays in Athens. It would be rather "Thorpean" if we just placed him on the relays without competing at trials.

How do you know Krazelburg won't swim the 200 back? I know he's had shoulder surgery, but hadn't heard he was dropping the 200.

swimmer
April 21st, 2004, 10:51 PM
I read it somewhere that he'd announced he would only swim the 100. I really don't think it matters. Phelps is just getting better and Lenny would do well just to get back to where he was.

Like I said, I could be wrong about the relays but there's something in the back of my head that says the coaches can pick the teams and that they have in the past put swimmers on relays that were not in the top 6 of the 100 or 200 free. I'll look around for something to support that.

swimmer
April 21st, 2004, 11:01 PM
From the US selection criteria
http://www.usa-swimming.org/PDF/2004%20Athlete%20Selection%20June%2011%2020031.pdf

DISCRETIONARY SELECTION

Discretionary selection will not be used for any swimmers in individual Olympic events from the Olympic Trials. However, all swimmers who are nominated to the Team as submitted to the USOC on or about July 15, 2004 shall be eligible for selection to any and all relays to be held at the Games. The Head Coach, in consultation with the assistant coaches and National Team Director, shall select the swimmers for each relay conducted at the Games. In selecting the relay teams, the Head Coach, in consultation with the assistant coaches and National Team Director, shall consider all available information, including but not limited to each Team Member's Olympic Trials performances (including preliminary times, time trials, and relay lead-off times), past relay performances, Olympic Games performances, personal best performances, Games event schedules, individual workload, other recent results and performances, consistency of performances, health, fitness levels, training preparation, scientific evaluation, and team chemistry. Selection of swimmers for relays shall not be subject to challenge.

If Phelps is swimming well and he still holds the American record for the 200 then I think they would pick him to be on the relay.
I would imagine this rule/guideline is in here for exactly this type of situation.

justforfun
April 26th, 2004, 11:44 AM
That's good news for Phelps (concerning the relays)...it could make his U.S. trials load a little lighter.

Mark in MD
April 26th, 2004, 12:39 PM
Here's an interesting article from today's Baltimore Sun. Click here (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/olympics/bal-sp.olynotes25apr25,0,4615466.story?coll=bal-sports-olympics) to read it. It's worth it, given the recent discussion here.