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Peter Cruise
February 15th, 2007, 08:18 PM
We now have just over a month before the open World Champs at Melbourne. What will we see there, more records? I believe that this is a 'statement' champs, not least of which the Aussies in the wake of the retirement of Ian Thorpe. Will the Chinese unveil some unknown superstars? Kitajima, according to the Swimming World website feels that he is returning to form, can he challenge Hansen (& how many little dolphin kicks he hide in his dive?).
What do you see on the horizon? Time to venture some predictions.
I say the we will see Park from Korea start to push Grant Hackett, with a view to getting in his head for 2008. Will Phelps shock and awe his opponents?
Let's hear from you...

Warren
February 15th, 2007, 10:22 PM
I think kitajima is done.

Peter Cruise
February 15th, 2007, 10:33 PM
I watched him live at the PanPacs, and I would not agree. He is still a world-class breastroker (&Japan has a couple more) and could medal, but I don't think after watching Hansen swim that he can be beat by Kitajima...legally.

scyfreestyler
February 15th, 2007, 11:50 PM
Shock and awe by Phelps is almost guaranteed. Kaitlin Sandeno and Peter Vanderkaay should be on the enemy radar as well.

Hansen, Crocker, and Piersol should be their usual untouchable selves. I think if Kitajima pulls his crap again with Hansen, Brendan will just sock him right there in the pool. Especially if Kitajima yells in his ear again, could you blame him? j/k of course!

How about Cullen Jones?

Timed Finals
February 15th, 2007, 11:52 PM
Remember folks... anyone can say anything to the media... You know, I kind of feel like I am returning to form :)

FlyQueen
February 15th, 2007, 11:56 PM
Kaitlin Sandeno isn't on the team ... I think both Peirsols will have a great meet. I'd like to see a new WR in the 100 free from Amanda Weir. I think the 4 x 100 free relay will be outta sight, both men's and women's.

I'm also anxious to see Hoff & Myers in the 2IM and see how Crocker does in the 1Fly.

newmastersswimmer
February 16th, 2007, 12:04 AM
I think both Peirsols will have a great meet. posted by FlyQueen

That comes as a real shock to me coming from you Heather...LOL!! :dedhorse: :thhbbb:

Newmastersswimmer :banana: :banana:

knelson
February 16th, 2007, 12:06 AM
I'd like to see a new WR in the 100 free from Amanda Weir.

She's got her work cut out for her. The women's 100 free should be one of the best races at the meet, IMO. Don't count Coughlin out either!

The Fortress
February 16th, 2007, 12:13 AM
I think both Peirsols will have a great meet.

But is Haley gonna beat bungee cord Kate? 2 new American SCY records without unbelievably awesome turns ...

Seagurl51
February 16th, 2007, 12:25 AM
How about Cullen Jones?


I'm stoked to see what Cullen does! He has so much potential, it'll be awesome to see how he reacts to competition on a big scale.

Hoff and Myers in the 200 IM is gonna be a great race too.

And as always I can't wait to see what Michael and Ian will do....their my boys :)

It'll be fun to see if Zeigler and Peirsol can close in a little more on Janet Evans record in the 1650.

Nathan
February 16th, 2007, 12:35 AM
The whole thing. I'm excited for the whole darn thing, even the 1,500 :joker:

knelson
February 16th, 2007, 12:38 AM
Nathan: are you going to Melbourne? If I recall correctly your wife made the team in both breaststrokes.

Nathan
February 16th, 2007, 01:22 AM
Nathan: are you going to Melbourne? If I recall correctly your wife made the team in both breaststrokes.

I will be there... well, I should be assuming nothing catastrophic happens :wiggle:

Megan will be swimming the 200m breaststroke at Worlds and the 100 and 200 at the Duel in the Pool. Exciting times!

knelson
February 16th, 2007, 01:51 AM
That's exciting! Megan has been swimming well and very consistently. Good luck to her!

The Fortress
February 16th, 2007, 08:30 AM
It'll be fun to see if Zeigler and Peirsol can close in a little more on Janet Evans record in the 1650.

Oh sick one ...

Kate broke the 1650 SCY record in December, swimming 15:37.1. She had previously broken Evan's records in the 500 and the 1000. Your brain is addled from lack of sleep. It happens to me all the time. ;) :)

Is anyone bold enough to predict some upsets?

swimr4life
February 16th, 2007, 08:45 AM
Amanda Weir will beat Coughlin in the 100 free. She has gone pro and no longer has to worry about college classes taking her away from the pool. She is back home with Chris Davs at Swimatlanta who has always been the right coach for her. She will be amazing.

FlyQueen
February 16th, 2007, 09:12 AM
The meet is LCM, not SCY. So I don't think we'll see the 1500 record go anywhere, but watching Kate & Hayley duke it out will be great, maybe they will pull it off.

Amanda will definitely have a tough time breaking the 100 free record, though I'd love to see her do it. You can never count out Coughlin or the Aussie girls, or Brita Steffen for that matter *cough* doping? *cough*

I'm probably most pumped for the following: women's 200IM, men's 100 fly, Cullen Jones in general, women's 200 free, women's free relays, all the men's relays ... Is there a possibility of this being on tv seeing as it is the year before Beijing?

Warren
February 16th, 2007, 10:13 AM
I hope cullen jones beats roland schoeman again. It seems like roland has been asleep for a while I wouldn't be surprised if he comes up with something big.

LindsayNB
February 16th, 2007, 01:18 PM
It will be interesting to see what Laure Manaudou does, can she reach 4min in the 400? Break the 800m record? Will Cseh or Lochte challenge Phelps? The field is pretty open in the mens 100m free. Who will inherit Thorpe's crown in the 200?

Peter Cruise
February 16th, 2007, 01:52 PM
The official website is at melbourne2007.com.au with all sorts of newsy stuff; also very interesting to read about the building of the temp. pool in Rod Laver Arena (webcam of assembly). Expect the women's 200 fly to be scorching duel.Interesting also that they have not adopted the morning finals routine a la Beijing...

FlyQueen
February 16th, 2007, 04:28 PM
I'd love to see Cullen Jones pull the upset on Schoeman. I think he needs to be taken down a peg, however, my guess is he'd come back from that with avengence in Beijing. (not that I expect Jones will start slacking)

The Kate vs Hayley show down will be awesome! The 400 free is going to be great, too. With those girls all pushing each other it'll be a great battle. I think there is a potential there to have two or three girls go under Janet's record.

The relays are going to be riddiculous. The women's 4 x 100 free relay and 4 x 200 free relays especially. The men's 4 x 100 free relay with the US vs South Africa (will they have an "A" team?) and a Thorpe-less Aussie team ... hmm ... I suspect the US will win in a new WR. As for the 4 x 200 free I think Lochte, Phelps, Vanderrkay, and Keller will get a new WR, too.

I hope Schipper pulls out the 200 fly, she's amazing and I'm not a fan of Otylia's. Will a US woman be able to medal in the 2fly? I'm not sure ... maybe Vandenberg I'm not sure Descenza has a podium finish at worlds in her. I'd love for her to surprise me though!

I'd also like to see a new world record in the women's 100 fly ... by Natalie. I think she'll be upset in the 100 back. She seems to be choking in that one as of late. I think losing at worlds would be good for her, it'll fire her up for Beijing where I think she will defend her title.

I think we'll see new world records in both 200IMs ... I predict Crocker pulls out the 100 fly ... and Peirsol and Hansen win both the 100 and 200 in their respective strokes ... really go out on a limb with those, huh?

Warren
February 16th, 2007, 07:13 PM
Id like to see katie hoff get a wr in the 200 im but its not going to happen.

I don't want cullen jones to break the american record in the 50 free but I wouldn't mind schoeman going 21.63 and beating the fastest time in disorganized competition to erase popov from the books.

Peter Cruise
February 16th, 2007, 10:22 PM
In women's breastroke Liesel Jones has ruled, smashing world records; now there is rumour of a hot new Russian girl Ludmilla Amphibimova to challenge her. Already there are rumours of genetic tinkering; I attach a picture from a local meet in Pondsk (her home town)- she is in the far lane, click on the thumbnail and see what you think...

Allen Stark
February 16th, 2007, 11:45 PM
Peter,you can't fool me,thats clearly you racing your daughter back when you were really in shape:rofl:

Frank Thompson
February 17th, 2007, 10:58 AM
I don't want cullen jones to break the american record in the 50 free but I wouldn't mind schoeman going 21.63 and beating the fastest time in disorganized competition to erase popov from the books.

Warren:

What do you mean by a disorganized competition? He set that record in the evening session of the Russian Olympic Trials on 6-16-2000 in Moscow. Now if you mean that he did it in a special time trial before the evening session finals, then yes it was not in the finals of the 50 meter Free, but he did meet all the standards set forth by FINA is SW Rules Sections 11, 12, and 13. He specifically followed Rule 12.4 because that is key for time trial World Records to count. There have been many competitons where swimmers in both Swimming and Masters have not followed this and been denied a World Record. As long as FINA allows this, then I don't see a problem with it. If Federations don't like it, then they must petition FINA to change it.

In the last two years, both Tara Kirk and Ian Crocker have gotten records in time trials. Crocker's was a World Record in the 50 Fly and Tara Kirk's was an American Record in the 200 Yard Breast and both records were performed University of Texas pool in Austin, which is the site of the 2008 USMS SC Nationals. I am going to provide a link to this discussion we had about a year ago and Tom Jager response to the breaking of the record.

http://forums.usms.org/showthread.php?p=53590&highlight=alex+popov#post53590

http://www.fina.org/rules/english/swimming.php

http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/lane9/news/1528.asp

Warren
February 17th, 2007, 11:51 AM
everyone in the heat dropped .3. that doesn't happen

FlyQueen
February 17th, 2007, 12:15 PM
Are you actually questioning Popov? He is the man. I know he and Gary Hall Jr don't get along, but Popov was amazing. He is a legend, and I do not doubt that record for a second.

Frank Thompson
February 17th, 2007, 01:13 PM
everyone in the heat dropped .3. that doesn't happen

Warren:

When you say everyone in the heat dropped .3 is a little confusing. Alex Popov was the only person swimming from my understanding. Now if you read the link that I provided, you will see that others have dropped beyond .3 in time trials. In 1981, William Paulus did a time of :53.81 to break the World Record in the 100 meter Fly that was set by Par Arvidsson of :54.15 set in 1980 in a time trail after the meet was over. In that same meet he did a :54.34 to win the individual event but was .53 from the time trial World Record. When swimming alone, yes I agree that a time trial swim will be faster with all of things discussed on the thread I linked. In the 50, especially with the start that can make up for a lot of time. For instance at the 2000 Olympics, both Anthony Erving and Gary Hall JR. had .14 and .10 advantages in the Reaction Times from the blocks on Alex Popov and Hoggie and I believe this helped the pair to the Gold Medal stand.

In 2003, a year before the Olympics, Popov went :21.99 and :21.91 at the 2003 World Championships in Spain. There is nothing that could not convince me that he could not go .28 seconds faster with a good start and swimming in an empty pool. Empty pool meaning no swimmers and not empty water. That last statement was a quote from Gary Hall about Popov getting the World Record in an empty pool. I would have to agree with Fly Queen that I think his swim is legitimate and that the Russian Swimming Federation did not do any wrong doing and he should get credit and have the World Record until someone comes along and swims faster than :21.63 and that can be done as of now either in a Meet or a Time Trial.

In 1989, Tom Jager had the Word Record of :22.12 and set that at the Pan Pac meet in Tokyo, Japan. In the Nashville swims against only one other swimmer, one or two lanes apart, very much like a time trial setting, he went :21.81 in his final swim to reduce the World Record by .31 seconds, which is very similar to what Popov did in his reduction in time. The only difference is that Matt Biondi was a couple of lanes over in there final TV swim match and went :21.85 to also break the old World Record. This was the only time in swimming history up to this point that two people broke the :22.00 barrier. At the 1992 Olympics, Alex Popov was the first swimmer to break the :22.00 barrier in a competitive meet going :21.91 and it would be 8 years before any swimmer would do that again. Shortly after Popov set the World Record in June of 2000, both Gary Hall Jr. and Anthony Erving went :21.76 and :21.80 at the 2000 Olympic Trials to be the only swimmers at that point to go under the :22.00 barrier. In the 2000 Olympics in the tied Gold Medal swim both swimmers swam a :21.98 for the win, which was .22 and .18 from the previous swims. So its realistic to have a variance of .30 and not be suspect.

swimr4life
February 17th, 2007, 01:38 PM
World records can be set in a time trial with only 2 people swimming?.... or swimming alone? Wow...as much as I love Popov, Hall, Erving and Biondi...that doesn't seem fair. I'm surprised FINA allows that. Swimming in wide open water without the "wave" off the start and turn gives them a definite advantage. But heck if FINA allows it, we should have more time trial swims!!!

Frank Thompson
February 17th, 2007, 02:05 PM
Beth:

This has always been a controversial issue dating back to probably 1984 when Peter Williams broke the World Record in the 50 Meter Free swimming all alone. This has also been a controversial issue back in the 1950's and 1960's when the USA Olympic Team would have time trial swims to determine who would make up the Relays for the Olympics. Today that is not done but the Coaches set the critera in advance or so we are told and there is a lot of disagreements with how this is done. Topic for past and future threads.

From my understanding of reading the FINA Rules, you can swim alone or with as many people as you want. You must follow all of the rules including that 12.4, so that everyone that wants to swim a time trial, has the ability to. No Swimming Federation has come forward to challenge this and get it changed. So it looks like Time Trial World Records is here to stay. Also, you have to remember that USA Swimming allows this and there were attempts besides Tara Kirk at Austin last year at the American SCY Championships. So if we as a Federation allow it here, I don't think it will change no matter how many people complain.

Warren
February 17th, 2007, 02:44 PM
quote from gary hall jr

"Popov swam his time in a time trial. I think that there were two other swimmers in the pool. It was at the Olympic trials meet for 2000. I have had a few people tell me that the time wasn't legitimate, the other swimmers times were .3 faster than they had ever been before or since, Popov's time being .3 faster too. I don't know how to respond to that. Roland proved that a 21.6 is possible, there is no disputing that he went that time. (shrug). I'll beat either one of them if they step up on the blocks next to me. I'll go the time it takes to win."


Sounds like the clock started .3 late.

FlyQueen
February 17th, 2007, 03:20 PM
I really like Gary Hall Jr., however consider the source. Obviously he is more likely to be upset or suspicious about the time than someone else. Look at Amanda Weir this year in the 100 she dropped considerable time from her pervious best to grab a new American record. It can happen. Popov has certainly proven he is one of the best sprinters of all time, it's not like a Brita Steffen came out of no where to get a WR.

That all being said, Gary has certainly been able to step up when it counts and beat those guys. I'd love to see him on the Beijing team, too.

Peter Cruise
February 24th, 2007, 06:22 PM
From the Melbourne 2007 website (which really does have some interesting stuff) come a great illustration of a cultural divide: they are running a poll on site that asks "Who are you most looking forward to see at the Opening Ceremony Saturday March 17?"
The choices are-
Shannon Noll
Ian Thorpe
Christine Anu
Natalie Bassingthwaite...

Doh? Naturally I voted for Ms. Bassingthwaite!

Warren
March 2nd, 2007, 09:59 AM
I don't remeber hearing about world champs trails. Are they not having trials this year?

Frank Thompson
March 2nd, 2007, 11:57 AM
Warren:

The selection meet for the 2007 World Championships was the 2006 Conoco Phillips Nationals that were held on August 1-5, 2006. What is unusual about this is that the 2 swimmers selected from the trials meet were not necessarily guaranteed spots on the World Championship team. At the 2006 Pan Pac meet in Canada, the USA could have up to 3 additional swimmers in the qualifing heats and if they beat the 2 swimmers selected by the team in the Nationals/trails they would be eligible to swim in the World Championships. You could actually not place better but do the best time from the Pan Pac meet and beat out the top two swimmers of the Nationals/Trials or from the semi finals and still make the team in that event. Jessica Hardy is an example of this in being the 3rd fastest breaststroker from the USA in the semi finals and then in the consolation beating the top two from the USA to make the team. Another example is that Natalie Coughlin won the 100 Fly at Nationals and elected not to swim it at the Pan Pacs. Oppuntunities were there for 2 or more swimmers to post a better time than hers and make the team. No one did that so she is still on the team in the 100 Fly.

I don't ever remember a qualifing meet set up like this. Usually the top two at the Trails meet go and if one swimmers decides to scratch then the next swimmer moves up. Years ago it used to be 3 swimmers. I think not having a World Championship Trials meet was a good decision this year because the meet starts in the middle of March and it would have conflicted with the NCAA Championships and USA Grand Prix events which would not be helpful to any of the swimmers because they would be tired after a long trials meet and the travel accross the world and they might have not performed adequately because of the lack of rest and to many meets.

Peter Cruise
March 2nd, 2007, 12:05 PM
It did make the PanPac heats much more fun to watch.

Frank Thompson
March 2nd, 2007, 12:08 PM
quote from gary hall jr

"Popov swam his time in a time trial. I think that there were two other swimmers in the pool. It was at the Olympic trials meet for 2000. I have had a few people tell me that the time wasn't legitimate, the other swimmers times were .3 faster than they had ever been before or since, Popov's time being .3 faster too. I don't know how to respond to that. Roland proved that a 21.6 is possible, there is no disputing that he went that time. (shrug). I'll beat either one of them if they step up on the blocks next to me. I'll go the time it takes to win."


Sounds like the clock started .3 late.

Warren:

Your avatar bias is starting to show with that last sentance about the clock starting .3 late. I know Gary Hall Jr. probably does not agree with how the WR was set and I respect that. However I take issue with this because all Popov was doing was swimming a time trial like everyone before and its not his fault that he broke the record because the FINA Rules & Regulations allows him to do this. This is no different than when Rowdy Gaines went :49.36 to break the World Record and that was performed in a time trial. Time Trial opportunities are still going on in fact I saw a LC Time Trial listed in the American Short Course Championships in Austin, TX that Ande swam in so opportunties are still available for everyone to do this and its unfair to criticize someone for taking advantage of there opportunties.

http://www.theraceclub.net/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=443#443

SwimStud
March 2nd, 2007, 12:24 PM
World records can be set in a time trial with only 2 people swimming?.... or swimming alone? Wow...as much as I love Popov, Hall, Erving and Biondi...that doesn't seem fair. I'm surprised FINA allows that. Swimming in wide open water without the "wave" off the start and turn gives them a definite advantage. But heck if FINA allows it, we should have more time trial swims!!!

As a novice here is my view. I don't neccessarily argue with Beth but just quote her b/c her comment fostered my thoughts.

In regard to "records." If we allow unnatural tampering e.g. Shaving, Fastskins, to gain advantage (by unnatural I mean altering the body's natural state--not cheating). I think all Records should be allowed; even if one single person swims alone unfettered.

My point being why allow the addition of a "wave" to slow them down when everyone's doing little things to eradicate the drag?

If we want to see how far the human body can go in water, then a single swimmer, hairy or shaved head to toe, fastskin or naked if they so wish should be able to do it and have the record stand. For me a record is a record against a time, not another person.

Who really cares if it's America, Russian, Australian, or whatever. Provided they did it drug free that's all that matters to me.

Rich

Warren
March 2nd, 2007, 01:18 PM
Warren:

Your avatar bias is starting to show with that last sentance about the clock starting .3 late. I know Gary Hall Jr. probably does not agree with how the WR was set and I respect that. However I take issue with this because all Popov was doing was swimming a time trial like everyone before and its not his fault that he broke the record because the FINA Rules & Regulations allows him to do this. This is no different than when Rowdy Gaines went :49.36 to break the World Record and that was performed in a time trial. Time Trial opportunities are still going on in fact I saw a LC Time Trial listed in the American Short Course Championships in Austin, TX that Ande swam in so opportunties are still available for everyone to do this and its unfair to criticize someone for taking advantage of there opportunties.

http://www.theraceclub.net/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=443#443


You can't deny that the situation described leaves a little uncertanty.

Peter Cruise
March 9th, 2007, 02:36 AM
Just over a week away...

OldH2O
March 9th, 2007, 09:54 AM
Laure Manaudou is slated to swim 9 individual events among them the 1500 and the 50 back. On a good day she is likely to win the former and has an small outside chance in the later. Were other swimmers in history that versatile ? Shane Gould (she hold the free 100 - 1500 WR at the same time I believe) and to a certain extend Michael Gross (from 100 Fly to 800 SCM ) come to mind any others?

Warren
March 9th, 2007, 10:21 AM
I so excited for melbourne. There is alot of hype suronnding this competition exspecialy with hacket and jensan talking smack about each other. And it seems like this meet is very unpredictable, any thing could happen. Only thing gaunteed is phelps doing well. it should be interesting to watch.

FlyQueen
March 9th, 2007, 04:17 PM
Shirley Babashoff was extremely versatile ... Katie Hoff has trial cuts in every event, the first woman to do so ... Phelps is obviously EXTREMELY versatile ... Coughlin, too ...