View RSS Feed

Vlog the Inhaler, or The Occasional Video Blog Musings of Jim Thornton

My Analysis of Leslie's Analysis

Rating: 4 votes, 5.00 average.
I urge you to quickly read Leslie The Fortress Livingston's excellent if somewhat convoluted and heavily codiciled analysis of her swimming times, vis a vis different racing suits (especially the HyNeck Pro and B70).

You can read her analysis here, http://forums.usms.org/blog.php?b=2131 but if you don't want to do this, in a nutshell, she concludes that the B70 helps a little, but not all that much, and primarily for distance swims, which she doesn't do any of (unless by distance she means the 100 IM, which in my mind stretches the meaning of the word "distance" to the very elastic limits, much as I believe Leslie has similarly stretched her "analysis" into a realm where only 15-dimensional Gaussian-style ubermath, also used in the hedge fund industry, can justify it.)

I wrote the following as a comment on Leslie's blog, but it ended up being so long, and it's also been a while since I posted a vlog of my own, so I am putting it here instead:

Leslie, here is my analysis of your analysis, but broken down in another way. I am going to go through each of these things and put your best time without a B70 and your best time with a B70, and leave all other variables aside.

Backstroke Events
:

50 Back SCY:


29.34 (H-Pro, Nats)(T)

28.5 (B70)(T)

B70 Assist: .84

100 Back SCY:


1:04.7 (H-Pro)(T)

1:02.8 (B70)(T)

B70 Assist: 1.9

50 Back SCM:


33.2 (R-Pro)(T)
31.7 (B70)*

B70 Assist, 1.5 seconds

100 Back, SCM:


1:13.9 (R-Pro)(T)
1:11.7 (B70)*

B70 Assist with caveats noted above, 2.2 seconds

50 Back, LCM:


33.48 (R-Pro)(T)
33.40 (B70)(T)

B70 Assist: .08 second

100 Back, LCM:


1:14.1 (R-Pro)(T)
1:13.4 (B70)

B70 Assist: .7 second

Fly Events:

50 fly, SCY:


27.6 (H-Pro)(T)

27.2 (B70)(T)


B70 assist: .4 second

100 fly SCY:


1:04.2 (H-Pro)(T)
1:01.3 (B70)(T)

B70 Assist: 2.9

50 fly SCM:


31.48 (R-Pro)
29.99 (B70)(some T)

B70 Assist: 1.49 second

50 fly, LCM:


31.61 (R-Pro)(T)
31.13 (B70)(T)

B70 Assist: .58

50 free, SCY:


25.99 (H-Pro)(T)
24.97 (B70)(T)

B70 Assist: 1.02

50 free, SCM:


28.7 (R-Pro)(T)
28.5 (B70)

B70 Assist: .2


50 free, LCM:


29.2 (R-Pro)(T)
29.3 (B70)

B70 Assist: -.1

100 IM, SCY:

1:06.8 (H-Pro)
1:04.1 (B70)*

B70 Assist: 2.7

You can slice and dice data in multiple ways, add all sorts of variables and explanations and fudge factors, but the bottom line as far as I can see is that with only one exception, the 50 LCM freestyle, you went significantly faster in every single race wearing a B70. All your second fastest times as a master (with the exception again of the 50 LCM free), you swam either in a B70 or in the fastest available pre-B70 generation racing suit, that is, the H-Pro.

In no event did you get your get your fastest or even second fastest time without wearing one of these suits. Since the H-Pro is already considered a very fast suit, the fact that there were such consistent and at times huge time drops (four time drops between 1-2 seconds; two time drops between 2-3 seconds, all in events of a total distance of 50-100) makes me more convinced than ever that the B70 represents a huge advantage over the very best previous generation suit.

Furthermore, if you average the time changes for the 50s [.84, 1.5, .08, .4, 1.49, .58, 1.02, .2, -.1] you have an average drop over 50 yards and meters of .67 seconds from your fastest B70 performances compared with your fastest H-Pro swims. You swam fewer 100s, but the average drop was even greater here--[1.9, 2.2, .7, 2.9, 2.7] for an average of 2.08 seconds.

Such time drops might not mean much for the average lap swimmer. But for a swimmer already near the very top of the national hierarchy in her age group, 2/3rds of a second in 50s and over 2 seconds in a 100 is huge. Again, this is not comparing a poly suit to the B70. It's comparing the talk of the Sydney Olympics suit with the talk of the post-Beijing Olympics suit (at least in masters swimming circles.

Sorry, Leslie. I wish I could have coroborated your analysis. But my analysis of your analysis, albeit one that uses Occam's Razor to cut away fudge factors I am sure you would love to keep, reaches a diametrically opposite conclusion!

Submit "My Analysis of Leslie's Analysis" to Digg Submit "My Analysis of Leslie's Analysis" to del.icio.us Submit "My Analysis of Leslie's Analysis" to StumbleUpon Submit "My Analysis of Leslie's Analysis" to Google

Categories
Uncategorized

Comments

  1. Jazz Hands's Avatar
    [ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation[/ame]
  2. tjrpatt's Avatar
    Jim,
    Leslie has done the 200 Back recently.
  3. qbrain's Avatar
    You should write research for Hammer.
  4. jim thornton's Avatar
    Jazz Hands: i agree.

    Tom: we unfortunately do not have a B70 and non B70 comparison for this, but I would venture to guess our Fortress would never have undertaken a 200 of anything outside the protective carapace of her favorite neoprene armor/body boat. (Don't get me wrong: I would love to swim in a B70 myself and test the phenomenon firsthand if A) I could afford one, and B) it's not likely to be outlawed the same day the check clears. In fact, my very lust for a B70 myself is further evidence for why I think it helps performance more than Leslie concedes

    Q: Which Hammer? Mike, Emcee, or some other one I don't know about?
  5. Chris Stevenson's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by jim thornton
    In fact, my very lust for a B70 myself is further evidence for why I think it helps performance more than Leslie concedes
    Well, I think it is great evidence for "the grass is greener" phenomenon.

    Or is it the "loser laments" phenomenon? I always confuse the two.
  6. The Fortress's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by jim thornton
    Jazz Hands: i agree.

    Tom: we unfortunately do not have a B70 and non B70 comparison for this, but I would venture to guess our Fortress would never have undertaken a 200 of anything outside the protective carapace of her favorite neoprene armor/body boat.
    Ha ... ha!!

    I swam my 200 back in my Pro.
    I swam my 200 IM in a poly tank. Do you not recall my text about my B70 blow out that you vlogged?

    Pfttttt!!!

    Maybe weight lifting and training hard help more than you concede, eh?
  7. jim thornton's Avatar
    Leslie, evidently I need to curb my slip shod tongue! Your new highly trained and cut-buff body will surely dispatch my low-T (vlog to come, eventually) shemaleness to perdition.

    It looks like we were commenting ships passing in the night.

    I just posted on your much more viewed blog.

    Thank god I am part owner of the Compound, otherwise I can see you throwing me out for my impertinence!

    Chris, it is definitely loser lamenting jealousy on my part. Leslie has now beaten me in several events and with her boat like carapace is making progress of events like the 50 free I still claim as my own!

    Back, back, evil boat! I am mere flesh. Do not run me over!
  8. Chicken of the Sea's Avatar
    Jimbo,
    A pair of control-top pantyhose and a leotard has always worked for me, and at less than $10 (plus tax).