#### 200 freesyle NCAA winner mathematically deconstructed

by

, March 28th, 2009 at 11:05 PM (2408 Views)
1 Fraser, Shaune FLOR 200 free time of1:31.70

JuniorShaune Fraser(George Town, Cayman Islands) swam a career-best mark and UF record in the 200-yard freestyle (1:31.70) to capture the first individual national championship title of his career.

first 50, dive assisted:(21.57)

second 50(23.67)

third 50(23.25)

fourth 50(23.21)

If you give the guy 1.5-2 seconds for the start, which may or may not be reasonable, a case could be made for this fellow negative splitting his #1 winning 200 free.

It would be nice to know what his all out 50 time is, but the closest I could find to this was his split in the 400 medley relay the day before, where he swam the freestyle leg:

first 50 (19.87) both dive aided and relay start aided

second 50 22.32 (42.19)

He also lead off the 400 free relay and got these splits:

1st 50 20.40

second 50 22.01 (42.41)

I am going to go out on a limb here and guesstimate that his fastest 50 is right around the high 19s.

To simplify the math, let us say 19.87

Thus his first 50 in the 200 free(21.57) was about1.7 seconds slowerthan his fastest all out 50.

We could quibble a bit about this. The range is probably anywhere from 1 to 2 seconds slower.

Hissecond 50in the 200 free (23.67) was3.8 seconds slower than his fastest.

Histhird50 was about3.2 seconds slower.

And hisfourthand final 50 was about the same, maybe3.1 seconds slower.

----------------

Now, for purposes of projection, let us apply the same basic math to me. My fastest time as a masters swimmer, 6-7 years ago, was 1:55.11, or 1.26 times greater duration than his Shaune's 1:31.7.

Let us call the 1.26 figure the S-J Coefficient, for the "Shuane to Jim Coefficient" or, more simply, SJ.

My fastest 50 this year is 24.53. Let me take Shuane's "slowdown" compared to his own fastest 50 vs. what he took out his 200 in, 1.7 seconds, and multiply this by SJ and we get 2.14 seconds. Add this back to my own fastest 50, and this would suggest that if I swim a congruent race to Shuane's, I will need to go out in26.67seconds.

Now we move to the second 50, which in Shuane's case was 3.8 seconds slower than his best. Apply the SJ (3.8 x 1.26) and we get 4.79 and add this to my fastest 50, and we see that I will need to swim my second 50 at29.32.

Following the same basic mathematical logic, I will need to swim my 3rd 50 at28.56, and my final 50 at28.44.So, I will need to go out the first 100 in

55.99and come back the second 100 in

57.00...For a new personal all time best 200 free style swim of

1:52.99.

___________________

Observations:

- There is something dreadfully wrong with any math that suggests I could come close to swimming a 1:52.+ unless...
- The B70 and/or LZR advantage is really going to help me by providing at least 1 second per 50 and probably a little more or....
- I need to factor in a wee bit more Finnish formula age grading wiggle room in the S-J Coefficient...
- I am thinking that If I simply add 1 second per 50 here, what might be termed {S-J Coefficient}~Finnish Formula Wigglized, or SJ~FFW, or perhaps even more simply, SJ v.2, then we would have the following splits:

27.67

30.32 (first 100 57.99)

29.56

29.44 (second 100 59.00

_____

1:56.99

I would be absolutely delighted with this time, but it still leaves an awful lot of dependence riding on the likely soon to be incarcerated swimmer's helper, the B70 flotation device.

Well, let us see how the math proves to be. I have a Y regional meet next weekend, but the 200 free is on the same day that I swim the 1000, a relay, the 50 fly, the 100 fly, and then one event rest before the 200 free. No B70 either.

But perhaps Colony Zones will prove a different story. Time will tell.

_____________________

Final Note on Above Deconstruction through Precise Application of Math:

- It is not an accident that I used red ink to designate Shaune Fraser's excellent 200, and blue ink to designate my less excellent and, in fact, not yet even swum 200. These hues represent the color of our respective bloodstream's after approximately 10 yards into our respective races.