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Thread: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 2070?

  1. #1
    Very Active Member jim thornton's Avatar
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    Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 2070?

    I am writing a story for Swimmer magazine on where USMS records are likely to be 50 years from now and would truly appreciate your help in predicting these!


    There are a total of 1800+ individual pool records possible, so to narrow things down, I'm concentrating on two events in two age groups: the 100 yards free and the 400 yard IM in age groups 45-49 and 65-69.


    The current records here are pretty amazing, and the curves showing the trajectories since USMS began 50 years ago suggest there is likely plenty of room to drop.

    If you could send me your email address to jamesthornton1@comcast.net , I will send you my little prediction form plus graphs of the record trends. Thanks in advance.

    Alternatively, you could just post your predictions here. In any event, I need to have my story in by the 15th, so please act with some alacrity! Again, thanks so much in advance.

    PS if you could include any rationale
    behind your predictions (mathematical analysis, guess work, gut feeling, whatever) that would be fantastic!

    Note: current records and record holders are in red below.





    Name: _______________________


    Your predictions for records by 2070:


    Men 100 Free

    Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 46.21) 65-69 (R. Abrahams: 49.42)

    By 2070 _________________ _________________




    Women 100 Free

    Now: 45-49 (E. Braun: 51.99) 65-69 (L. Val: 57.88)

    By 2070: _______________ _________________




    Men 400 IM

    Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 4:01.32) 65-69 (R. Colella: 4:30.64)

    By 2070: ___________ _____________________




    Women 400 IM

    Now: 45-49 (K. Pipes-Nielsen: 4:32.87) 5-69 (L. Val: 5:21.70)

    By 2070: ___________ __________________


    Rationale for your choices:



  2. #2
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Those records are already bordering ridiculous!
    I won't be around in 2070.

    The 45-49 records will be close to today's US-open records, probably slightly faster. 45-year-olds can get very close to their lifetime bests with a concerted effort. Couple that with the general evolution of the sport and I think there is no problem for someone born in 2025 to hit a 2020 US open record in 2070 because the best will be hitting those times well before their athletic peak age.

    I think the 65-69 records are harder to predict. Even for the most healthy, well preserved, elite athlete, age is taking its toll by 65. Still, I expect athletes will find ways to more effectively slow that decline. I'll say that:

    The men's 65-69 100 fr will be within 5% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 7% today.
    The men's 65-59 400 IM will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 12% today.
    The women's 65-69 100 fr will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 11% today.
    The women's 65-59 400 IM will be within 12% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 18% today.

    A complicating factor is that many if not most affluent aging adults in 2070 will be "enhanced". Forget doping (which I suspect effectively already influences the majority of the men's records, even if it is "therapeutic") what about cognitive and mechanical enhancement? The sky may be the limit when the line between man and machine is sufficiently blurred. There also may be a loss of distinction between male and female, which will further complicate record keeping.
    Last edited by Karl_S; August 11th, 2020 at 10:44 AM.

  3. #3
    Very Active Member jim thornton's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Thanks, Karl. Did you do the math to compute your predictions? I am not that mathematically savvy!

    100 free 45-49 65-69

    M

    W

    400 IM 45-49 65-69

    M

    W

    Also, could you PM me your last name? Thanks. Jim

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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    In 2070.
    100 FR
    M 45-49 39.90
    M 65-69 41.9
    W 45-49 45.56
    W 65-69 49.7

    400 IM
    M 45-49 3:33.32
    M 65-69 3:52.5
    W 45-59 3:55.60
    W 65-69 4:23.9

    In retrospect, the W 65-69 400 IM looks somewhat preposterous, but I'll stick with my prediction just because it is often a good idea to go with one's first instinct, and since I won't be around then I can see very little downside to being wrong. Anyway, with the very real possibility of tissue regeneration therapies by 2070, a 65 y.o. female in 2070 matching a good but not elite college swimmer from today seems pretty plausible.

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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.

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    "Don't float through life orca1946's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    By then I'll be 120 so, I don't want go sway the predicted profile.

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    aka Elaine-iaK & Aqua Dog ElaineK's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Karl_S View Post
    I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
    Unfortunately, none of the threads are generating much traffic. It has gradually dropped off over the last few years, and now the traffic is at a crawl.

    Although I have read this thread, I have no strong feelings one way or another as to what will happen with the records, so I have just been
    http://ElaineiaKsTravels.wordpress.com

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    Very Active Member Allen Stark's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Karl_S View Post
    I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
    I hadn't responded because I was not sure how to make any reasoned predictions.
    Lack of forum activity continues to be a sore point for me. There may have been a slow decrease in activity for some time, but it dropped precipitously when the new main page of USMS came out and the forums link disappeared from the top line.
    "To strive,to seek,to find,and not to yield" Tennyson
    Allen

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    Very Active Member Calvin S's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Allen Stark View Post
    I hadn't responded because I was not sure how to make any reasoned predictions.
    Lack of forum activity continues to be a sore point for me. There may have been a slow decrease in activity for some time, but it dropped precipitously when the new main page of USMS came out and the forums link disappeared from the top line.
    Bugs me too. It seems so simple (from my understanding of website platforms) to just add a link at the top directing people to the forums. And since it seems so easy but USMS hasn't done it, I have to believe it's because they choose not to do it, which goes to show they really don't give a damn about these forums anymore.

  10. #10
    aka Elaine-iaK & Aqua Dog ElaineK's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Calvin S View Post
    Bugs me too. It seems so simple (from my understanding of website platforms) to just add a link at the top directing people to the forums. And since it seems so easy but USMS hasn't done it, I have to believe it's because they choose not to do it, which goes to show they really don't give a damn about these forums anymore.
    I agree with you and King Frog. What's up with that?
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    Very Active Member JPEnge's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Karl_S View Post
    I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
    I would be well open for discussion if we were talking 10 or 20 years in the future... 50? I have absolutely no idea. Not even an inkling of a guess. Especially not for Masters. I have to think that barring inclusion of gene editing or something like that, we have to be getting fairly close to maximal speed for overall world (US Open for SCY :P ) records in the sprints. Not as close for 200s and up but still can't be far off - I mean, the best women's 200 fliers in the world haven't come within a couple seconds of that supersuited record in a decade, and it's not like Belmonte Garcia, etc are pushovers.

    How that translates to older people, I'm not sure. I guess theoretically the Masters records should just start to get marginally closer to world records, but how close?
    400 IMer/200 backstroker in another life, now sprinter/breaststroker... Yeah, I don't know how that happened either!

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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Calvin S View Post
    Bugs me too. It seems so simple (from my understanding of website platforms) to just add a link at the top directing people to the forums. And since it seems so easy but USMS hasn't done it, I have to believe it's because they choose not to do it, which goes to show they really don't give a damn about these forums anymore.
    I would have to agree. What is so sad is that there doesn't seem to be any alternative online forum that USMS is investing in. Yeah, they do the odd post to Instagram, but even that has little regularity to it and that is not a platform for conversation. And, there's no real discussion or engagement on Facebook from USMS.

    USMS had THE global lead with these forums as a place for adult swimmers to talk about swimming and they've squandered it. I'm sure they will see a membership drop due to the pandemic, but I'm sure the USMS leadership's decision to not invest in the key virtual community they already had will exacerbate this drop.

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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by pwb View Post
    I would have to agree. What is so sad is that there doesn't seem to be any alternative online forum that USMS is investing in. Yeah, they do the odd post to Instagram, but even that has little regularity to it and that is not a platform for conversation. And, there's no real discussion or engagement on Facebook from USMS.

    USMS had THE global lead with these forums as a place for adult swimmers to talk about swimming and they've squandered it. I'm sure they will see a membership drop due to the pandemic, but I'm sure the USMS leadership's decision to not invest in the key virtual community they already had will exacerbate this drop.
    Yeah, it's unfortunate. There are some big adult swimming groups on FB, but I really want to chat with other adult swimmers on technique and training and stuff and the ones I've seen/am a member of aren't big on that.
    400 IMer/200 backstroker in another life, now sprinter/breaststroker... Yeah, I don't know how that happened either!

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    Very Active Member Allen Stark's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by pwb View Post
    I would have to agree. What is so sad is that there doesn't seem to be any alternative online forum that USMS is investing in. Yeah, they do the odd post to Instagram, but even that has little regularity to it and that is not a platform for conversation. And, there's no real discussion or engagement on Facebook from USMS.

    USMS had THE global lead with these forums as a place for adult swimmers to talk about swimming and they've squandered it. I'm sure they will see a membership drop due to the pandemic, but I'm sure the USMS leadership's decision to not invest in the key virtual community they already had will exacerbate this drop.
    Sorry to hijack this thread, but the Forums are important. I emailed USMS and got a reply that the new"platform" will hopefully be up by the end of the year. I expect they are doing the best they can, but it surely would be nice to have an easily accessed, vibrant discussion arena to keep our swimming interest alive in the absence of meets and, in many areas, even pools.
    "To strive,to seek,to find,and not to yield" Tennyson
    Allen

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    aka Elaine-iaK & Aqua Dog ElaineK's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    Quote Originally Posted by Allen Stark View Post
    Sorry to hijack this thread, but the Forums are important. I emailed USMS and got a reply that the new"platform" will hopefully be up by the end of the year. I expect they are doing the best they can, but it surely would be nice to have an easily accessed, vibrant discussion arena to keep our swimming interest alive in the absence of meets and, in many areas, even pools.

    Absolutely! We need it now more than ever. This is the only social media I engage in except for (very) occasional communications with my team on Facebook, and it has been a tremendous help for me over the ten years I have been a USMS member. In my opinion, this would be the optimal time for USMS to be encouraging its members to interact on the Forums!

    Thanks to all of you who have been my virtual coaches over the years-- especially you, King Frog!
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    If we did not have this forum, there wouldn't be any reason to visit this site. I totally agree with Allen and Elaine...

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    Very Active Member Calvin S's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    They may be preparing some new platform for the end of the year, but with the way they roll out things related to these forums, what I suspect is that we will only know the forums have moved to a new platform when we all log in (or are unable to log in!) and get some sort of “501 Gateway Error” and then we all wonder what happened (by ourselves cause we have no where to meet and discuss “what happened to the forums?”), and three weeks later a press release shows up on SwimSwam and SwimmingWorld about a new forum platform that has been up and running for four weeks.

    I’ve predicted (down to the order of teams scoring) the last two Champions League soccer game scores. My skills as a clairvoyant are only rivaled by my skills in the pool

  18. #18
    Very Active Member Allen Stark's Avatar
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    Re: Request predictions! How low will USMS records go by 207

    It has taken me awhile to really think about the question and my definitive answer is that it is totally unpredictable. Look at 50 years ago and what has happened since. In 1976 Sports Illustrated had their usual Olympic prediction article. They noticed that the record progression for the 1500 M free was nearly linear and made their time prediction. I laughed because I knew the 1500 WR at the time was way under their prediction. I knew about one of, if not the, greatest, invention in competitive swimmng history,goggles, had made ultra-long workouts feasable. Suddenly distance swimmers in the US and Australia were going 20,000M/day.Since then we have had State sanctioned doping, UDK, ultrafast pools, breaststroke rules rewritten majorly once and minorly more times, shiny tech suits, fabric suits that are almost as fast as the shiny suits, EVF(remember the S pull) fins on starting blocks,wedges for backstroke,etc. etc. The next breakthrough is unpredictable, because if we could predict it someone would be doing it now.
    "To strive,to seek,to find,and not to yield" Tennyson
    Allen

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